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Carter Bahns#18 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 19, 2026

They pick Jacksonville to win in Denver, arguing the market still undervalues the Jaguars and that the Broncos' offense under new play-caller Davis Webb won't score enough to keep pace.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

50Close · out of 100
Broncos 20–13What happenedcalled Jaguars by 7 · lost by 7
82.1A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
50This callout of 100
#18Carter Bahns’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Carter Bahns said

the Jaguars can put up a number that the Broncos cannot match.
Our reading: Jacksonville Jaguars 24 — Broncos 17
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Jaguars vs. Broncos: Jacksonville aims for 10th consecutive regular-season win
The original
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  1. SaidSep 19
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 50 out of 100, against 82.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars 24 — Broncos 17

    What happenedBroncos 20–13called Jaguars by 7 · lost by 7
    50Close · naive 82.1
    50this call82.1a naive guess−32.1worse than naive1.94difficulty−62.28skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5, total 45.5 · this 24–17 calls a Jaguars win (by 7; the line gave the Jaguars 43%) and fewer points (41).

    How this was scored
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    −62.28
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    82.1
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    7
    Think this is wrong?

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