Matt MillerMar 17, 2026
ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller laid out their expectations for the upcoming draft: Carnell Tate goes somewhere between picks four and nine (not lasting to Miami at 11), Jeremiah Love goes between four and seven with the two Notre Dame backs as the first two running backs off the board, Jadarian Price is a top-40 pick, Arkansas' Mike Washington is a second-rounder, Ty Simpson's likelier landing spot is round two, and Miami right tackle Francis Mauigoa won't fall far past the top five.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Matt Miller said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo I think the window for Carnell Tate is is really it's from four to nine.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 3: ESPN’s Matt Miller Talks NFL Draft, plus Rich’s Top 5 Sports “Patricks”
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 17
- GradedAug 13
- 1Jeremiyah Love to be 1st running back off the board“We'll see the two Notre Dame backs go one, two, I think, is the expectation.”
- 2Jadarian Price to be 2nd running back off the board“We'll see the two Notre Dame backs go one, two, I think, is the expectation. And Jarian Price should be a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick.”
- 3Jadarian Price to be picked “a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick” (picks 1–40)“And Jarian Price should be a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick.”
- 4Mike Washington to be picked “probably a second round pick” (picks 33–64)“So he's the only other player that I think we could look at right now is saying probably a second round pick for Mike Washington”
- 5Francis Mauigoa to be picked “he will not get very far out of the top five” (picks 1–5)“I have a strong feeling that he will not get very far out of the top five.”
- 6Ty Simpson to be picked “more round two than round one”“it feels like a game of musical chairs where the the ideal spots for him might be more round two than round one”
- 7Carnell Tate to be picked “from four to nine”“So I think the window for Carnell Tate is is really it's from four to nine.”
- 8Jeremiyah Love to be picked “anywhere from four to seven”“So I think Love could go anywhere from four to seven. I don't know that, you know, he gets out of that window right now.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love to be 1st running back off the board1 | Position Order Calls | — | 100 | 25.97 | +74.03 | |
| Jadarian Price to be 2nd running back off the board2 | Position Order Calls | — | 100 | 31.29 | +68.71 | |
| Jadarian Price to be picked “a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick” (picks 1–40)3 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 32 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Mike Washington to be picked “probably a second round pick” (picks 33–64)4 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 122 | 8.11 | 50 | — | |
| Francis Mauigoa to be picked “he will not get very far out of the top five” (picks 1–5)5 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 10 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Ty Simpson to be picked “more round two than round one”6 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Carnell Tate to be picked “from four to nine”7 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Jeremiyah Love to be picked “anywhere from four to seven”8 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 8 calls · 4 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting | 81.6 | 41.5 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 2 position order calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 81.6 out of 100, against 41.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
1Position Order CallsJeremiyah Love
Jeremiyah Love to be 1st running back off the board
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 25.97100this call−25.97a naive guess=74.03better than naive×1difficulty=+74.03skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 13 at random averages 25.97
- skill:
- 74.03
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 25.97
- position:
- running back
- class size:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Position Order CallsJadarian Price
Jadarian Price to be 2nd running back off the board
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 31.29100this call−31.29a naive guess=68.71better than naive×1difficulty=+68.71skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 13 at random averages 31.29
- skill:
- 68.71
- player:
- Jadarian Price
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 31.29
- position:
- running back
- class size:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Mock Draft PicksJadarian Price
Jadarian Price to be picked “a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick” (picks 1–40)
What happenedWent 32100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jadarian Price
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a top 40 selection, maybe even a late first round pick (picks 1–40)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
4Mock Draft PicksMike Washington
Mike Washington to be picked “probably a second round pick” (picks 33–64)
What happenedWent 1228.11Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Mike Washington
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 8.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 122
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 8.11
- predicted pick:
- probably a second round pick (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
5Mock Draft PicksFrancis Mauigoa
Francis Mauigoa to be picked “he will not get very far out of the top five” (picks 1–5)
What happenedWent 10100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- he will not get very far out of the top five (NOT picks 1–5)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Ty Simpson to be picked “more round two than round one”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Carnell Tate to be picked “from four to nine”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
8Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah Love
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “anywhere from four to seven”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
81.6naive 41.5
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Lance Zierlein · Mock Draft Picks · Carnell Tate · Hit 96
Zuerlein describes their mock draft 3.0: Carnell Tate to the Giants at No. 5, Sonny Styles falling to the Cowboys at No. 12, and Colton Hood to Dallas at No. 20. They also expect runs on linebackers from the late twenties to about pick 45, defensive tackles from the early-mid twenties into the 40s, and says Ahvion Terrell's 4.65 forty knocks them out of first-round contention. They call Kenyon Saddiq and Mansoor Delaine the safest picks for Dallas, and thinks Delaine's tape is top-four caliber, while Jeremiah Smith could be a generational, Megatron-type receiver.Jaime Eisner · Mock Draft Picks · Ty Simpson · Close 42
A seven-round Jets mock draft projecting New York to take Ohio State's Arvell Reese at No. 2 and Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson at No. 16, followed by Ty Simpson, Brandon Cisse, Jalon Kilgore, Tyreak Sapp, Kaelon Black, Fernando Carmona and Trebor Pena.Danny Parkins · Mock Draft Picks · Carnell Tate · Hit 88
Danny Parkins presented their one-and-only 2026 mock draft, including trades: Mendoza at 1 to the Raiders, David Bailey second to the Jets, the Cowboys trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Bears trading up to 16 for Kadyn Proctor, and Ty Simpson going to Arizona at 32 at the end of round one.Nick Wright · Mock Draft Picks · Francis Mauigoa · Close 74
Nick Wright unveiled their full 32-pick 2026 NFL mock draft 4.0, starting with Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 and ending with Avion Terrell to the Seahawks at 32. They also called Carnell Tate the best/safest receiver in the class, projected Ty Simpson inside the top 45, said Mendoza profiles as a low-end top-15 NFL quarterback, and expected the Dolphins to lose 15 games.David Harrison · Mock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah Love · Hit 96
Harrison delivers their only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.