Daniel Horowitz· Nov 1, 2024

Horowitz said his House map came out at 219-216 for Republicans, with the GOP losing nine seats and flipping six. On the presidential side he was bullish on Trump in Arizona and Nevada and expected a narrow Trump win in Georgia of about a point and a half; on the Senate he had Republicans taking Montana but not Ohio.

“I got to two nineteen two sixteen Republicans.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 4 race winners, 1 chamber control, 1 race margin and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

4 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 73.8 out of 100, against 47.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I would just say Ohio. Ohio's momentum towards being red appears to have stalled out for me from what I'm seeing. There's some Democrat net in migration there, but I could be wrong. That would be the fifty second seat if I'm wrong.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Sherrod Brown
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 1, 2024
“I got to two nineteen two sixteen Republicans.”
Hit · 95Scored 95a naive guess scored 90+5 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
220
skill:
5
topic:
elections
what happened:
220
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
95
baseline:
90
they said:
219
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 1, 2024
“I got to two nineteen two sixteen Republicans... It would put them at two nineteen, but it could easily go either way.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“And then my senate map pretty much just reflects that he'll... He'll get... We'll get Montana.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I'm pretty sure Nevada, although I could see him losing Nevada despite the good good early voting”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 1, 2024
“a lot of our colleagues think he's gonna win Georgia by five points. I think it's gonna be more like one one and a half... I think he's favored”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“it benefits him in the Sun Belt. So I'm very bullish in Arizona.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.