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Bernie FrattoFeb 8, 2026

Bernie Fratto predicted a close Super Bowl LX with the Patriots beating the Seahawks 23-20, rejecting the idea that Seattle would win in a blowout.

Said on air or in an interview · Fox Sports Radio (podcast)Hear the original

19Miss · out of 100
Score PredictionsThe callsettled
16.73A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
19.05This callout of 100
+2.31Skillafter difficulty

What Bernie Fratto said

I had to score twenty three to twenty Patriots.
Our reading: New England Patriots 23 — Seahawks 20
Where it was said
Fox Sports Radio (podcast)
The episode
Bernie Fratto previews Super Bowl Sunday, gives his pick, and is joined by Scott Pritchard and Mark Medina!
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidFeb 8
  2. GradedAug 14

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 19.1 out of 100, against 16.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots 23 — Seahawks 20

    VerdictMiss
    19.05Miss · naive 16.73
    19.05this call16.73a naive guess2.32better than naive1difficulty+2.31skill

    Closing line (Feb 8): Seahawks by 4.5, total 45.5 · this 23–20 calls a Patriots win (by 3; the line gave the Patriots about 1 in 3 (32%)) and fewer points (43).

    How this was scored
    score:
    29-13
    skill:
    2.31
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    19.05
    baseline:
    16.73
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    16
    weeks left when called:
    0
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    3
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