Spencer Kimball· Oct 31, 2024

The Emerson polling director argued the CNN polls showing Harris up five in Michigan and Wisconsin are outliers, and said Pennsylvania and Georgia look like they lean to Trump, North Carolina leans Trump by about a point or two, Wisconsin should go to Trump given historic underrepresentation of his vote, and Nevada still leans to Harris.

“So to me, anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will will take it because we're underrepresenting.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 5 have settled, averaging 77.6 out of 100, against 16.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 31, 2024
“Now the race is much tighter. It's about a half a point. I still think it leans towards Harris, but Trump has made up a lot of ground... that's a state where I think the Democrats can still hold it.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
I still think it leans towards Harris
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2024
“So to me, anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will will take it because we're underrepresenting.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will will take it
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsOct 31, 2024
“It's probably leaning to Trump by about one to two points, but that's gonna be a lot to overcome considering the situation.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.9a naive guess scored 81.4+6.57 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
6.57
topic:
elections
what happened:
3.21
in their words:
about one to two points
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
87.9
baseline:
81.4
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
3.21
their party:
Republican
their range:
1,2
the naive guess said:
1.35
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2024
“Maybe it falls in between those two numbers, but it seems to be leaning towards Trump at this time.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
it seems to be leaning towards Trump at this time
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 31, 2024
“it looks like Pennsylvania should go towards Trump, and that would suggest he would have some success on election night... that's why we see that, you know, Pennsylvania as a toss-up, slightly leaning towards Trump”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Pennsylvania as a toss-up, slightly leaning towards Trump
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.