Rich LowryOct 7, 2026
Lowry expects Susan Collins to survive a tough Democratic year and win reelection in Maine despite neck-and-neck polling, and they think Jon Ossoff will win a sizable victory in Georgia.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly ShowHear the original
1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Rich Lowry said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think she's probably gonna win this year.
- Where it was said
- The Megyn Kelly Show
- The episode
- The Key Midterm Issue, and Vance vs. Cruz, with Rich Lowry and Charles C.W. Cooke, Plus James Woods on His New Album and Our Culture | Ep. 1413
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 7
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine“I think she's probably gonna win this year... I think she'll probably pull it out, but the polling is neck and neck.”
- 2Jon Ossoff to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia“He's gonna win a pretty big victory in November, and he's a pretty good communicator”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine1 | Race Winners | Troy Jackson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jon Ossoff to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia2 | Race Winners | Jon Ossoff won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled | 50 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Susan Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
What happenedTroy Jackson woncalled Susan Collins0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.04difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-me
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Troy Jackson
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Susan Collins
- days before the vote when called:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Jon Ossoff to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
What happenedJon Ossoff woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.04difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-ga
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Jon Ossoff
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jon Ossoff
- days before the vote when called:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 50
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.