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Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 25, 2026

Eisen argues that if Ty Simpson does go in the first round, it will be in the bottom third of the round.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Went 13What happenedsettled
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#38Rich Eisen’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Eisen said

the first round, one would think it would be in the bottom third of the first round
Our reading: Ty Simpson to be picked “bottom third of the first round” (picks 1–100)
The episode
Hour 2: MMQB’s Albert Breer, Power Ranking of Super Bowl in the NFL Network Era
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidMar 25
  2. GradedAug 18

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
bottom third of the first round (picks 1–100)They said
13What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Mock Draft PicksTy Simpson

    Ty Simpson to be picked “bottom third of the first round” (picks 1–100)

    What happenedWent 13
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    bottom third of the first round (picks 1–100)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

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