Tom Pelissero· Feb 26, 2026
Pelissero predicts Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders and that Ty Simpson is the only other QB in the class seen as a possible early starter.
“You have a draft where Fernando Mendoza, we all assume and believe he's going number one to the Raiders.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 44.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where this call stands in the room
Fernando Mendoza · 2025 season · overall pick3 calls from 3 pundits between 1 overall pick and 1 overall pick. Tom Pelissero said 1 overall pick. the room's median is 1 overall pick. what happened: 1 overall pick
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“You have a draft where Fernando Mendoza, we all assume and believe he's going number one to the Raiders.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Position Order CallsTy SimpsonFeb 26, 2026
Ty Simpson to be 2nd quarterback off the board
“After that, the only other quarterback that somebody might think can be a starter sooner than later is probably Tye Simpson from Alabama.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 39.7+60.3 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 10 at random averages 39.7
- skill:
- 60.3
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 39.7
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 2
- predicted order:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Hondo CarpenterRoster Spot Calls · Patrick JohnsonHit · 100Carpenter says the right guard competition currently favors Jackson Powers-Johnson over Caleb Rogers, though he expects Rogers to get starts at some point this season, and he projects veteran DE Patrick Johnson to make the 53-man roster.
- Hondo CarpenterRoster Spot Calls · Aidan O'ConnellHit · 100Carpenter predicts special-teams linebacker Segun Olubi will make the Raiders' 53-man roster, with Las Vegas carrying five inside linebackers. He also notes projections that the Raiders keep all three quarterbacks, including Aidan O'Connell.
- Hondo CarpenterRoster Spot Calls · Kirk CousinsHit · 100Carpenter projects the Raiders' 53-man roster will include 10 defensive backs (four safeties and six cornerbacks) and three quarterbacks, with Kirk Cousins kept barring a compelling trade offer.
More position order calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonPosition Order Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookPosition Order Calls · Olaivavega IoaneMiss · 35Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Rhett LewisPosition Order Calls · Tyler ShoughHit · 100Lewis names Louisville's Tyler Shough as the new QB3 of the class — the third quarterback off the board — and views Milroe as a second-round selection.
- Nick WrightPosition Order Calls · Carnell TateHit · 100Nick Wright laid out his full mock draft 3.0 for the 2026 NFL Draft, pick by pick through the first round, and also predicted AJ Brown would finish top five in the NFL in receiving yards with the Patriots.
- Todd McShayPosition Order Calls · K.C. ConcepcionHit · 100McShay's mock draft 4.0 has Fernando Mendoza and David Bailey going 1-2 to the Raiders and Jets, the Saints trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Titans taking Jeremiah Love at 4, the Giants taking Francis Mauigoa at 5 (though he'd now switch to Sonny Styles), the Cowboys trading up to 6, the Jets trading up to 7 for Carnell Tate, and Arizona trading up to 30 for Ty Simpson. He also predicts seven offensive tackles go in the first round and that Love, Styles, Downs and Reese all go in the top seven.
- Keith SanchezPosition Order Calls · Jordyn TysonClose · 71As relayed by Harrison, Sanchez's latest mock draft has Carnell Tate going to Washington, Jordan Tyson as the first receiver off the board at No. 5 to the Giants, Makai Lemmon at 11 and Chris Brasel at 30 to Miami, Sonny Styles at No. 8 to New Orleans, and Caleb Downs at No. 13 to the Rams.