Chris Brockman· Dec 29, 2025
Brockman floated the 49ers as the team to beat in the NFC after their Sunday night win, predicted James Cook would lead the league in rushing, and said Tyler Shough will win Rookie of the Year with the Saints finishing above .500 next season.
“James Cook is gonna lead the league in rushing this year.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 conference champion, 1 positional finishe and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 46.7 out of 100, against 28.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsSan Francisco 49ersDec 29, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to reach the Super Bowl
“the San Francisco holds on, and the forty niners should be the favorites to win the NFC.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Positional FinishesJames CookBuffalo BillsDec 29, 2025
James Cook to finish top 1 at his position, by rushing yards
“James Cook is gonna lead the league in rushing this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+111 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 111
- player:
- James Cook
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- rushing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 16
- actual finish:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- predicted finish:
- 1
- Season Win TotalsNew Orleans SaintsDec 29, 2025
New Orleans Saints to finish with 9 wins
“Tyla Shuck's gonna win rookie of the year and have the Saints over 500 next year.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 85-49.95 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- -49.95
- what happened:
- 6
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Award PicksTyler ShoughNew Orleans SaintsDec 29, 2025
Tyler Shough to win Rookie of the Year
“Tyla Shuck's gonna win rookie of the year and have the Saints over 500 next year.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Ralph VentreRoster Spot Calls · Christian BenfordMiss · 0Ventre expects Christian Benford's toe injury to sideline him for at least the Week 4 game against New England, and believes the Bills will have to add a cornerback to the 53-man roster this week — likely by moving Benford to injured reserve — with practice squad rookie Kani Walker the most likely player elevated.
- Richie BradshawScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 83Bradshaw picks the 49ers to beat the Cardinals in their Week 3 matchup, predicting a final score of 27-14 in San Francisco's favor.
- Carmen VitaliGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. She also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.
- Connor "Boston Connor" CampbellConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.