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Robert CahalyOct 28, 2022

The Trafalgar pollster forecast a strong Republican midterm: a House pickup of more than 25 and possibly 30 seats, and Republican control of the Senate with at least 51 seats, potentially 52 or more after a Georgia runoff. They also said they did not see Mastriano winning the Pennsylvania governor's race, though they expected them to close strongly.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly ShowHear the original

1 of 4calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled
40Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
83.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Robert Cahaly said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I would expect the Republicans to win, north of 25, maybe 30, house seat pickup and, the Republicans to win the senate with at least 51
Robert Cahaly, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Megyn Kelly Show
The episode
Oz Takes the Lead, and "Family Friendly Drag Show," with Jeremy Boreing, Robert Cahaly, and Carrie Prejean | Ep. 422
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 28, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026
  1. 1Seat Counts“I would expect the Republicans to win, north of 25, maybe 30, house seat pickup”
  2. 2Seat Counts“At least win the senate with 51 and a Georgia runoff, they could get them 52 or better.”
  3. 3Control of Congress“the Republicans to win the senate with at at least... At least win the senate with 51”
  4. 4Shapiro to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election“So, again, I don't see Mastriano at this point winning, but I think he's gonna close a lot of shock people.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“I would expect the Republicans to win, north of 25, maybe 30,…”1Seat Counts92055−35.35
“At least win the senate with 51 and a Georgia runoff, they…”2Seat Counts494080−40.4
“the Republicans to win the senate with at at least... At least…”3Control of Congress—0100−101
Shapiro to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election4Race WinnersJosh Shapiro won1001000
4 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled4083.8

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 2 seat counts, 1 control of congres and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 4 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 83.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Seat Counts

    “I would expect the Republicans to win, north of 25, maybe 30, house seat pickup”

    What happened9called north of 25, maybe 30, house seat pickup
    20Miss · naive 55
    20this call55a naive guess−35worse than naive1.01difficulty−35.35skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    222
    skill:
    −35.35
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    9
    in their words:
    north of 25, maybe 30, house seat pickup
    read as:
    as written
    result from:
    house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
    chamber:
    2022-house
    what they counted:
    net seats
    accuracy:
    20
    baseline:
    55
    days before the vote when called:
    10
    difficulty:
    1.01
    seats before:
    213
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    their range:
    25 to 435
    the naive guess said:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Seat Counts

    “At least win the senate with 51 and a Georgia runoff, they could get them 52 or better.”

    What happened49called At least win the senate with 51 and a Georgia runoff, they could get them 52 or better
    40Close · naive 80
    40this call80a naive guess−40worse than naive1.01difficulty−40.4skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    49
    skill:
    −40.4
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    49
    in their words:
    At least win the senate with 51 and a Georgia runoff, they could get them 52 or better
    read as:
    as written
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2022-senate
    what they counted:
    seats held
    accuracy:
    40
    baseline:
    80
    days before the vote when called:
    10
    difficulty:
    1.01
    seats before:
    50
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    their range:
    52 to 100
    the naive guess said:
    50
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Control of Congress

    “the Republicans to win the senate with at at least... At least win the senate with 51”

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.01difficulty−101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −101
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2022-senate
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    10
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Race Winners

    Shapiro to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

    What happenedJosh Shapiro woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2022-governor-pa
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Josh Shapiro
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Josh Shapiro
    days before the vote when called:
    10
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    40naive 83.8

The race in this take

every call on each
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More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.