Jim Geraghty· Nov 8, 2022

Geraghty predicted a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of 235 seats to 200 for Democrats (within a 229–241 range), and a 51–48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning their races.

“you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats, so put those down as my final prediction numbers”

published in writing · Tangle (newsletter) · read the original →

8 checkable claims — 3 race winners, 3 seat counts and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 8 have settled, averaging 41.3 out of 100, against 73.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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8 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“With Bolduc, Laxalt, and Johnson winning”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“With Bolduc, Laxalt, and Johnson winning”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats, so put those down as my final prediction numbers”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 55-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Democratic
seats after:
213
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
213
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
35
baseline:
55
they said:
200
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“With Bolduc, Laxalt, and Johnson winning, I come out to a 51–48 GOP advantage by the end of the week”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“you end up with 235 Republicans and 200 Democrats, so put those down as my final prediction numbers”
Miss · 35Scored 35a naive guess scored 55-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
35
baseline:
55
they said:
235
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“I come out to a 51–48 GOP advantage by the end of the week”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 80-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
80
they said:
51
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“With Bolduc, Laxalt, and Johnson winning”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“my back-of-the-envelope math envisioned a GOP House majority somewhere between 229 and 241, and I'm sticking to that”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.