Krystal Ball· Nov 4, 2024

Ball predicted that Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson will lose the North Carolina governor's race by a double-digit margin, possibly 15 to 20 points.

“This dude running for governor, Mark Robinson on the Republican side, is probably gonna lose, but definitely double digits, maybe fifteen, maybe twenty.”

said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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1 checkable claim in this take

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Race MarginsNov 4, 2024
“This dude running for governor, Mark Robinson on the Republican side, is probably gonna lose, but definitely double digits, maybe fifteen, maybe twenty.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-governor-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
what happened:
-14.8
in their words:
probably gonna lose, but definitely double digits, maybe fifteen, maybe twenty
result from:
wikipedia-2024-governor
who won:
Josh Stein
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Mark Robinson
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
no
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
14.8
their party:
Republican
their range:
10,100
the naive guess said:
0
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