Geoff SchwartzJun 2, 2025

Schwartz says they would likely pick the Bills to win the AFC this season, and agrees Jalen Hurts is the fifth-best quarterback in the league, giving them the slight edge over Jayden Daniels for now.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 2calls landed2 misses · all settled

4.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

33.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2 of 2Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Geoff Schwartz said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I mean I will probably pick the Bills to win the AFC.

Geoff Schwartz, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode: Hour 3 - Some NFL predictions
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJun 2, 2025
GradedAug 5–17, 2026

1Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl“I mean I will probably pick the Bills to win the AFC, but again, like they have to do it, Jay Mac, they can't beat the Chiefs.”
2Jalen Hurts to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards“I would give Hurts probably the slight edge... But for right now, I think that's there's no problem putting Hurts five.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl¹	Conference Champions	NE and SEA won	0	0	0
Jalen Hurts to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards²	Positional Finishes	Finished #16	8.33	66.67	−116.67
2 calls · 2 misses · all settled			4.2	33.3

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 conference champion and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 4.2 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Conference Champions Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked BUF
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
2Positional Finishes Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards
What happenedFinished #16called #5 · by passing yards
8.33Miss · naive 66.67
8.33this call66.67a naive guess−58.34worse than naive2difficulty−116.67skill
How this was scored
skill:
−116.67
player:
Jalen Hurts
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
8.33
baseline:
66.67
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing yards
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
20
actual finish:
16
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
5
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
4.2naive 33.3