State of the Union (CNN)Oct 20, 2024
A Republican panelist on the roundtable argued that Pennsylvania is in good shape for Republicans in both the presidential and Senate contests, suggesting Trump could carry the state by up to two points, and framed North Carolina and Georgia as the remaining battlegrounds.
Said on air, transcribed by us · State of the Union (CNN)Hear the original
2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
35.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What State of the Union (CNN) said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think Donald Trump could win Pennsylvania by as much as two.
- Where it was said
- State of the Union (CNN)
- The episode
- Interviews with House Speaker Mike Johnson, Independent Senator Bernie Sanders
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 20, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania“I believe Pennsylvania looks great for Republicans in both the senate race and the presidential race.”
- 2Race Margins“I I think Donald Trump could win Pennsylvania by as much as two.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania1 | Race Winners | Dave McCormick won | 100 | 0 | +102 | |
| “I I think Donald Trump could win Pennsylvania by as much as two.”2 | Race Margins | Donald Trump won | 100 | 71.3 | +29.27 | |
| 2 calls · 2 hits · all settled | 100 | 35.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 1 race margin and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 35.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
What happenedDave McCormick woncertified result100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.02difficulty=+102skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-pa
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- Pennsylvania looks great for Republicans
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Dave McCormick
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Dave McCormick
- days before the vote when called:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
“I I think Donald Trump could win Pennsylvania by as much as two.”
What happenedDonald Trump won100Hit · naive 71.3100this call−71.3a naive guess=28.7better than naive×1.02difficulty=+29.27skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president-pa
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 29.27
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 1.71
- in their words:
- 1-2
- read as:
- as written
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin in points
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 71.3
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- days before the vote when called:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 1.71
- their party:
- Republican
- their range:
- 1 to 2
- the naive guess said:
- −1.16
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 35.7
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Tom Bevan · Race Margins · Hit 81
Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.Ben Shapiro · Race Margins · Miss 6
Ahead of the midterm elections, Shapiro predicted Republican wins in several marquee races: Marco Rubio beating Val Demings in Florida's Senate race, Brian Kemp defeating Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ron DeSantis beating Charlie Crist by roughly 10 points, and Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship.Steve Deace · Race Margins · Miss 36
Deace forecast a "red tsunami": Republicans gaining roughly 54 House seats, winning 56 Senate seats, and capturing governorships in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Pennsylvania. They also said Ron DeSantis would set a Florida record for the largest GOP gubernatorial margin, that Chuck Grassley would not lose in Iowa, and that Kim Reynolds would win big.Jason Johnson · Race Margins · Miss 36
Johnson predicted Republicans would take both chambers, ending with about 230 House seats and about 53 Senate seats, and picked Lee Zeldin in New York and a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate race as their biggest upsets. They also agreed DeSantis would break Florida's GOP gubernatorial margin record.