Cannon said he would be surprised if Trump failed to carry Georgia, expecting a narrow win there of roughly one or two points.

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 98.1 out of 100, against 75.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Race MarginsOct 30, 2024

  “but Georgia, if Trump doesn't win Georgia, I'll be I'll be surprised. I'll just... I I think it's gonna be very close, but, you know, one or two point win, it looks like, there to me.”

  Hit · 98Scored 98.1a naive guess scored 75.8+22.52 skill
  How this was scored

  race:

  2024-president-ga

  election year:

  2024

  skill:

  22.52

  topic:

  elections

  what happened:

  2.19

  in their words:

  one or two point win

  result from:

  fec-2024-president

  who won:

  Donald Trump

  zero credit this far off:

  10

  what they counted:

  margin_points

  whose number:

  Donald Trump

  accuracy:

  98.1

  baseline:

  75.8

  race name:

  2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia

  decided in the:

  general

  days before the vote when called:

  5

  difficulty:

  1.01

  they won:

  yes

  the naive guess:

  the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it

  Election Day:

  2024-11-05

  the certified margin:

  2.19

  their party:

  Republican

  their range:

  1,2

  the naive guess said:

  -0.23

  Think this is wrong?

More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

• Sam WangRace MarginsHit · 88
  Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
• Steve DeaceRace MarginsHit · 100
  On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.
• Henry OlsenRace MarginsHit · 85
  Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
• David FrumRace MarginsClose · 72
  Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid.
• Tim MillerRace MarginsClose · 50
  Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats.
• Robby SoaveRace MarginsClose · 56
  Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.