Steve Deace· Oct 22, 2024
Deace predicted Trump would carry Florida by a landslide margin of eight to 12 points, far above the state's historical presidential margins, and separately said he expects Republican Bernie Moreno to win the Ohio Senate race.
“Now, Trump's gonna win that state by eight to 12 points up here, which in a Florida presidential election man is a massive blowout.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 race margin and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 94.5 out of 100, against 1.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race MarginsOct 22, 2024
“Now, Trump's gonna win that state by eight to 12 points up here, which in a Florida presidential election man is a massive blowout.”
Hit · 89Scored 89a naive guess scored 2.6+88.13 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president-fl
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 88.13
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 13.1
- in their words:
- eight to 12 points
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin_points
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 89
- baseline:
- 2.6
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
- decided in the:
- general
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 13.1
- their party:
- Republican
- their range:
- 8,12
- the naive guess said:
- 3.36
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“he's reaching a voter in Ohio that Bernie Marino's not, and I think Bernie Marino's gonna win, by the way.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-oh
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Bernard F. Moreno
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Bernard F. Moreno
- days before the vote when called:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Sam WangRace MarginsHit · 88Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Henry OlsenRace MarginsHit · 85Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- David FrumRace MarginsClose · 72Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid.
- Tim MillerRace MarginsClose · 50Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats.
- Robby SoaveRace MarginsClose · 56Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
- Ryan GrimRace MarginsClose · 56Ryan Grim confirmed his prediction map was essentially Sabato's but with Nevada going to Trump, producing a 270-268 Harris electoral college win.