Rod BlagojevichOct 7, 2026
In a post quoted on the show, Blagojevich predicted Susan Collins wins in Maine, Texas and Kansas remain Republican, and El Sayed loses the Michigan Senate race.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly ShowHear the original
0 of 4calls landed4 misses · all settled
0Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
25A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Rod Blagojevich said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromCollins wins in Maine, Texas and Kansas stay Republican, and El Sayed loses in Michigan.
- Where it was said
- The Megyn Kelly Show
- The episode
- The Key Midterm Issue, and Vance vs. Cruz, with Rich Lowry and Charles C.W. Cooke, Plus James Woods on His New Album and Our Culture | Ep. 1413
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 7
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas“Texas and Kansas stay Republican”
- 2Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine“Collins wins in Maine, Texas and Kansas stay Republican, and El Sayed loses in Michigan.”
- 3Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas“Texas and Kansas stay Republican”
- 4Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan“and El Sayed loses in Michigan”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas1 | Race Winners | Adam Hamilton won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine2 | Race Winners | Troy Jackson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas3 | Race Winners | James Talarico won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan4 | Race Winners | Abdul El-Sayed won | 0 | 100 | −104 | |
| 4 calls · 4 misses · all settled | 0 | 25 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 4 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 4 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
What happenedAdam Hamilton woncalled Roger Marshall0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.04difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-ks
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Adam Hamilton
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Roger Marshall
- days before the vote when called:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Collins to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
What happenedTroy Jackson woncalled Susan Collins0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.04difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-me
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Troy Jackson
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Susan Collins
- days before the vote when called:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
What happenedJames Talarico woncalled Ken Paxton0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.04difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- James Talarico
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ken Paxton
- days before the vote when called:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
What happenedAbdul El-Sayed woncalled Mike Rogers0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.04difficulty=−104skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-mi
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- −104
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Abdul El-Sayed
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Mike Rogers
- days before the vote when called:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 25
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.