Bill Scher· Oct 25, 2024

Scher called the race a coin flip but gave Harris the edge on ground game, and named as most likely a 270-268 Harris electoral college win built on the Blue Wall plus Nebraska's second district, with no Sun Belt states, a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. He also expected Tester to lose Montana and Allred and Mucarsel-Powell to fall short in Texas and Florida.

“I would think the most likely is a two seventy, two sixty eight Harris winning electoral college.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) · read the original →

13 checkable claims — 10 race winners, 2 chamber control and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 13 have settled, averaging 50.5 out of 100, against 35.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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13 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“in the senate, you know, Tester does not look good in Montana. I hate to say it, but it seems like just a lot of Republicans that move into that state just change the complexion of the state.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“while Allred and, Riskell Powell are knocking on the door in Florida and Texas, it seems hard to believe they could actually overcome, without there being a really broader blue wave”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlOct 25, 2024
“Democrats win the house. Republicans win the senate.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlOct 25, 2024
“Democrats win the house. Republicans win the senate.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2024
skill:
-102
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“will come up short, you know, in the Sun Belt where, you know, Joe Biden just barely won it, you know, in Arizona and Georgia last time”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“will come up short, you know, in the Sun Belt where, you know, Joe Biden just barely won it, you know, in Arizona and Georgia last time”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“That's that's Blue Wall plus Nebraska two”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
-102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“while Allred and, Riskell Powell are knocking on the door in Florida and Texas, it seems hard to believe they could actually overcome”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Rick Scott
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rick Scott
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“I'm inclined to believe Harris can gut out, the Rust Belt with ground game”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“That's that's Blue Wall plus Nebraska two, not winning anything in the Sun Belt.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“That's that's Blue Wall plus Nebraska two, not winning anything in the Sun Belt.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsOct 25, 2024
“I would think the most likely is a two seventy, two sixty eight Harris winning electoral college. Narrow, narrow, narrow.”
Close · 56Scored 56a naive guess scored 57-1.02 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
-1.02
topic:
elections
what happened:
226
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
100
what they counted:
electoral_votes
whose number:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
56
baseline:
57
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
270
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
they won:
no
the naive guess:
half the electoral college
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
86
their party:
Democratic
the naive guess said:
269
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 25, 2024
“I still put the edge in the Harris camp Yeah. Because I do feel that there is a ground game mismatch here.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
11
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.