Derek Brown#12 of 87 NFL pundits · Jul 26, 2025

Brown is even higher on Tetairoa McMillan (WR17) and calls them Carolina's alpha WR1, pitches Tony Pollard as a value with top-15 RB upside and the clear lead back in Tennessee, and says George Pickens is badly underpriced and will finish as a WR2.

Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 8calls landed3 hits · 1 close call · 4 misses · all settled

52.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls

47.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

8 of 8Settlednone still waiting

#12Derek Brown’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Derek Brown said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

He's gonna be a wide receiver two, with the volume that he's gonna see.

Derek Brown, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
The episode: FantasyPros - The BEST Fantasy Football Value Picks of 2025 (Ep. 1628)
The original: Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJul 26, 2025
GradedAug 7–19, 2026

1George Pickens to outplay his draft cost (seventy first overall in ECR wide receiver thirty two)“it's George Pickens. He is inappropriately priced. I mean he's seventy first overall in ECR wide receiver thirty two.”
2Tony Pollard to outplay his draft cost (sixty six overall. He's the RB twenty six in ACR)“right now he's sixty six overall. He's the RB twenty six in ACR. He's my fifty second overall player. I have him an RB nineteen”
3Tony Pollard to be 1st on the depth chart“Pollard's the unquestioned leader this backfield.”
4George Pickens to finish top 16 at his position, by fantasy points“I have George Pickens as a top twenty wide receiver. He's my wide receiver sixteen.”
5Drake Maye to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points“I think there's a definitive chance that May is a top twelve quarterback this year... So Drake May could easily be a top twelve quarterback.”
6Tony Pollard to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points“Tony Pollard could be a top fifteen running back based off a volume in an improved situation.”
7Tetairoa McMillan to be 1st on the depth chart“the pathway for him to be the un like unquestioned wide receiver one alpha in this offense”
8Tetairoa McMillan to finish top 17 at his position, by fantasy points“I've got Tedoro mcmillans Wide receiver seventeen thirty.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
George Pickens to outplay his draft cost (seventy first overall in ECR wide receiver thirty two)¹	Sleeper Calls	—	100	0	+200
Tony Pollard to outplay his draft cost (sixty six overall. He's the RB twenty six in ACR)²	Sleeper Calls	—	0	100	−200
Tony Pollard to be 1st on the depth chart³	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	100	100	0
George Pickens to finish top 16 at his position, by fantasy points⁴	Positional Finishes	Finished #4	0	0	0
Drake Maye to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points⁵	Positional Finishes	Finished #2	16.67	0	+33.33
Tony Pollard to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points⁶	Positional Finishes	Finished #23	33.33	91.67	−116.67
Tetairoa McMillan to be 1st on the depth chart⁷	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	100	91.67	+16.67
Tetairoa McMillan to finish top 17 at his position, by fantasy points⁸	Positional Finishes	Finished #13	66.67	0	+133.33
8 calls · 3 hits · 1 close call · 4 misses · all settled			52.1	47.9

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

8 checkable claims — 4 positional finishes, 2 depth chart calls and 2 sleeper calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 8 have settled, averaging 52.1 out of 100, against 47.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Sleeper Calls George Pickens Dallas Cowboys
George Pickens to outplay his draft cost (seventy first overall in ECR wide receiver thirty two)
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
seventy first overall in ECR wide receiver thirty two
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
George Pickens
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR41
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR4
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
2Sleeper Calls Tony Pollard Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard to outplay his draft cost (sixty six overall. He's the RB twenty six in ACR)
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
sixty six overall. He's the RB twenty six in ACR
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
−200
player:
Tony Pollard
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB22
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB23
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
3Depth Chart Calls Tony Pollard Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
TEN
skill:
0
player:
Tony Pollard
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
RB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Positional Finishes George Pickens Dallas Cowboys
George Pickens to finish top 16 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #4called #16 · by fantasy points
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
George Pickens
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
WR
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
41
actual finish:
4
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
16
Think this is wrong?
5Positional Finishes Drake Maye New England Patriots
Drake Maye to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #2called #12 · by fantasy points
16.67Miss · naive 0
16.67this call0a naive guess16.67better than naive2difficulty+33.33skill
How this was scored
skill:
33.33
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
16.67
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
22
actual finish:
2
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this is wrong?
6Positional Finishes Tony Pollard Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #23called #15 · by fantasy points
33.33Miss · naive 91.67
33.33this call91.67a naive guess−58.34worse than naive2difficulty−116.67skill
How this was scored
skill:
−116.67
player:
Tony Pollard
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
33.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
22
actual finish:
23
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
15
Think this is wrong?
7Depth Chart Calls Tetairoa McMillan Carolina Panthers
Tetairoa McMillan to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by receptions
100Hit · naive 91.67
100this call91.67a naive guess8.33better than naive2difficulty+16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
CAR
skill:
16.67
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
8Positional Finishes Tetairoa McMillan Carolina Panthers
Tetairoa McMillan to finish top 17 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #13called #17 · by fantasy points
66.67Close · naive 0
66.67this call0a naive guess66.67better than naive2difficulty+133.33skill
How this was scored
skill:
133.33
player:
Tetairoa McMillan
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
66.67
baseline:
0
position:
WR
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
no prior season — the startable tier at WR
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
36
actual finish:
13
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
17
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 8 settled calls, each counted once
52.1naive 47.9

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Shaun Calderon · Trade and Signing Calls · Jeffery Simmons · Miss 0
Calderon argues the 0-5 Titans won't turn their season around, that Cam Ward won't be benched soon, and that Jeffery Simmons stays in Tennessee while Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley are likely trade candidates with modest returns.
Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Micah Parsons · Miss 0
Eisen expects Myles Garrett to be traded before the draft and says the Browns will then take Abdul Carter with their early first-round pick; they also predict Buffalo will end up paying James Cook and that Micah Parsons will remain a Cowboy and get their money from Dallas, likely late in the process.
Pat Fitzmaurice · Score Predictions · New England Patriots · Miss 14
Fitzmaurice predicted a 24-21 Patriots win over the Packers, said they would not be surprised if Jonathan Taylor were inactive amid trade talk, pegged Jonah Coleman as an RB22 rest-of-season value, expected Evan Hull to be Arizona's backup back, and saw Kerby Joseph returning in Week 10 or 11.
Kevin Wildes · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Wildes took Minnesota over Buffalo, predicted a comfortable roughly 10-point New England win over Green Bay, and switched their Super Bowl matchup to Jaguars–Bears.
Nick Wright · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Wright argued the Jaguars are the AFC's most complete team, calling them the considerable favorite for the No. 1 seed and the only club essentially locked into the playoffs. They also picked Tampa Bay to upset Chicago, had Kansas City sweeping its next three games, liked New England over Green Bay by about a field goal, and updated their Super Bowl matchup to Chiefs–49ers.
Eric Mangini · Game Outcome Picks · New England Patriots · Miss 0
Mangini picked New England to beat Green Bay by more than a field goal, flagged Tampa Bay as their upset alert over Chicago, expects Kansas City to handle the Jets, took Buffalo over Minnesota, backed Cincinnati over Atlanta in Madrid, and updated their Super Bowl to Rams–Bengals.

More positional finishes

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.