Ayrton Ostley· Mar 5, 2026
Ausley says Utah tackle Spencer Fano will be gone inside the top 12 picks and that a team will trade up into the first round for quarterback Ty Simpson.
“I'm I'm gonna go on record. Spencer Fano is not making it outside of the top 12.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On 49ers (podcast) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickfirst round (picks 1–32)They said
13What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonMar 5, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“If Jackson Dart's gonna be a late first round pick, there's definitely going to be a team that's willing to move up to get tied [Ty].”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoMar 5, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked “top 12” (picks 1–12)
“I'm I'm gonna go on record. Spencer Fano is not making it outside of the top 12. He's he's he's gonna be long gone.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 12 (picks 1–12)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
What others said about the same people
- Blaine GrisakRoster Spot Calls · Ty SimpsonHit · 100After the Rams' first preseason game, Grisak predicted the full 53-man roster, naming three quarterbacks, four running backs, five receivers, five tight ends, nine offensive linemen, four linebackers, six defensive linemen, four edge rushers, five cornerbacks, five safeties and three special teamers, with Dean Connors headed for the practice squad instead.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Spencer FanoHit · 84Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.
- Rich EisenMock Draft Picks · Ty SimpsonHit · 100Eisen argues that if Ty Simpson does go in the first round, it will be in the bottom third of the round.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Ty SimpsonHit · 100Brooks argued Ty Simpson's value matches the bottom of the first round or the second round, not a top-six pick, and graded receiver Germie Bernard as a middle-of-the-second-round prospect.
- Jaime EisnerMock Draft Picks · Ty SimpsonClose · 42A seven-round Jets mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, assigning specific prospects to each of New York's nine picks, and calling Brandon Cisse a likely top-50 selection.
- Chris BrockmanPosition Order Calls · Ty SimpsonHit · 100Brockman argued four Ohio State players will be taken in the top 10, that Fernando Mendoza will be the first QB off the board and top Tom Brady's 2001 statistical line as a rookie, that Jeremiah Love will beat Ashton Jeanty's rookie production, that tight ends Kenyan Sadiq and Eli Stowers both go top 20, that Ty Simpson is the second QB drafted in round one and starts Week 1, that Jimmy Garoppolo gets the Cardinals over .500, and that Mike Evans leaves Tampa for a contender and goes further in the playoffs than the Bucs.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.