Ayrton OstlyMar 5, 2026
Ausley says Utah tackle Spencer Fano will be gone inside the top 12 picks and that a team will trade up into the first round for quarterback Ty Simpson.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On 49ers (podcast)Hear the original
What Ayrton Ostly said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI'm I'm gonna go on record. Spencer Fano is not making it outside of the top 12.
- Where it was said
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)
- The episode
- 49ERS SQUAD SHOW: POST COMBINE DRAFT ANALYSIS, Free Agency Taking Shape
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 4
- GradedAug 13
- 1Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“If Jackson Dart's gonna be a late first round pick, there's definitely going to be a team that's willing to move up to get tied [Ty].”
- 2Spencer Fano to be picked “top 12” (picks 1–12)“I'm I'm gonna go on record. Spencer Fano is not making it outside of the top 12. He's he's he's gonna be long gone.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 13 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Spencer Fano to be picked “top 12” (picks 1–12)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 9 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| 2 calls · 2 hits · all settled | 100 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 13100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Spencer Fano to be picked “top 12” (picks 1–12)
What happenedWent 9100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 12 (picks 1–12)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jaime Eisner · Mock Draft Picks · Ty Simpson · Close 42
A seven-round Jets mock draft projecting New York to take Ohio State's Arvell Reese at No. 2 and Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson at No. 16, followed by Ty Simpson, Brandon Cisse, Jalon Kilgore, Tyreak Sapp, Kaelon Black, Fernando Carmona and Trebor Pena.Nick Wright · Mock Draft Picks · Spencer Fano · Close 71
Nick Wright unveiled their full 32-pick 2026 NFL mock draft 4.0, starting with Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 and ending with Avion Terrell to the Seahawks at 32. They also called Carnell Tate the best/safest receiver in the class, projected Ty Simpson inside the top 45, said Mendoza profiles as a low-end top-15 NFL quarterback, and expected the Dolphins to lose 15 games.Danny Parkins · Mock Draft Picks · Ty Simpson · Close 44
Danny Parkins presented their one-and-only 2026 mock draft, including trades: Mendoza at 1 to the Raiders, David Bailey second to the Jets, the Cowboys trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Bears trading up to 16 for Kadyn Proctor, and Ty Simpson going to Arizona at 32 at the end of round one.David Harrison · Mock Draft Picks · Spencer Fano · Hit 88
Harrison delivers their only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.