Chris Simms#58 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 22, 2026

Simms picked the Patriots to win outright on the road in Chicago by a 24-21 score, and said they expect Lamar Jackson to play for the Ravens if they feel good later in the week.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 1calls landed1 close call · 1 waiting

42.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 1 call

86.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

1Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#58Chris Simms’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Simms said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm scared, but I'm gonna take the Patriots on the road twenty four twenty one.

Chris Simms, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)
The episode: Tight End Tiers; TNF Patriots-Bears Pick
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 22
PlayedOct 22
GradedOct 23

1New England Patriots 24 — Bears 21“I'm scared, but I'm gonna take the Patriots on the road twenty four twenty one. Okay. All right. That's my that's not only a cover straight up win.”
2Availability Calls“So the Bengals three and two, they are at Deckland Doyle's Ravens... So if if he's ready to go and feels good on Friday and okay Saturday, then I expect him to be out there.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
New England Patriots 24 — Bears 21¹	Score Predictions	Bears 30–24	42.86	86.37	−72.67
“So the Bengals three and two, they are at Deckland Doyle's…”²	Availability Calls	—	—	—	—
2 calls · 1 close call · 1 waiting			42.9	86.4

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 availability call and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 42.9 out of 100, against 86.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Score Predictions New England Patriots
New England Patriots 24 — Bears 21
What happenedBears 30–24called Patriots by 3 · lost by 6
42.86Close · naive 86.37
42.86this call86.37a naive guess−43.51worse than naive1.67difficulty−72.67skill
Closing line (Oct 22): Bears by 3, total 50.5 · this 24–21 calls a Patriots win (by 3; the line gave the Patriots 42%) and fewer points (45). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.
How this was scored
score:
24-30
skill:
−72.67
they picked:
NE
season:
2026
accuracy:
42.86
baseline:
86.37
difficulty:
1.67
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
12
naive home margin:
0.28
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
2Availability Calls Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
“So the Bengals three and two, they are at Deckland Doyle's Ravens... So if if he's ready to go and feels good on Friday and okay Saturday, then I expect him to be out there.”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?