Dan Pizzuta· Sep 8, 2022
Pizzuta offers bold 2022 predictions: Trey Lance finishes top-10 in EPA per dropback, DK Metcalf lands top-10 in receiving yards, the Giants finish with the league's worst record, Maxx Crosby leads the NFL in sacks, Desmond Ridder outplays and starts more games than Kenny Pickett, the Panthers grab a wild card, Justin Herbert wins MVP, and the Chiefs beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
“If we add another layer to Andy Reid's involvement, let's say the win comes over the Philadelphia Eagles.”
published in writing · Sharp Football Analysis · read the original (as archived Oct 1, 2022) → · live page
9 checkable claims — 3 positional finishes, 1 award pick, 1 conference champion, 1 depth chart call, 1 playoff pick, 1 season win total and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
8 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 53.1 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia EaglesSep 8, 2022
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“let's say the win comes over the Philadelphia Eagles.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+100 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
Maxx Crosby to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks
“Maxx Crosby leads the league in sacks”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 0+150 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 150
- player:
- Maxx Crosby
- season:
- 2022
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- defensive line
- ranked by:
- sacks
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 19
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
Justin Herbert to win MVP
“Justin Herbert wins MVP”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Desmond Ridder to be 1st on the depth chart
“Desmond Ridder outplays and outstarts Kenny Pickett ... The Falcons are going to be a much worse team overall, which would give a clearer path for Ridder starts.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Desmond Ridder
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
DK Metcalf to finish top 10 at his position, by receiving yards
“DK Metcalf Finishes In the Top 10 For Receiving Yards”
Close · 58Scored 58.33a naive guess scored 16.67+83.33 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 83.33
- player:
- DK Metcalf
- season:
- 2022
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 16.67
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 25
- actual finish:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 10
- Super Bowl PicksKansas City ChiefsSep 8, 2022
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl
“Chiefs win the Super Bowl”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- KC
- runner up:
- PHI
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Playoff PicksCarolina PanthersSep 8, 2022
Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs
“The Carolina Panthers will make the playoffs ... this team could sneak a wild card berth in a weaker NFC.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- skill:
- -200
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Positional FinishesTrey LanceSep 8, 2022
Trey Lance to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
“Trey Lance Finishes as a Top 10 QB ... we'll call it top-10 in EPA per dropback”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Trey Lance
- season:
- 2022
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 45
- actual finish:
- 63
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 10
- Season Win TotalsNew York GiantsSep 8, 2022
New York Giants to finish with ? wins
“The New York Giants will finish with the worst record”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Rich HribarPositional Finishes · Matthew StaffordHit · 100Hribar published his 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how he prioritizes drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.
- Chris BrockmanPositional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-NjigbaHit · 100Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called his shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.
- Pat GustavsonPositional Finishes · Josh AllenMiss · 17Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out his own coaching landing spots.
- Rich EisenPositional Finishes · George PickensHit · 100Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said he doesn't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.
- Chad Ochocinco JohnsonPositional Finishes · Christian GonzalezMiss · 0Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. He also reminds listeners he called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season.
- Rich EisenPositional Finishes · Puka NacuaHit · 92Eisen defended his preseason call of the Packers reaching the Super Bowl, said the Chiefs will win the AFC West, called the Ravens the favorites in the AFC North, said the Colts are a playoff team, expected Denver to handle Cincinnati and the Giants to beat the winless Saints, and endorsed Puka Nacua as the league's best receiver.