Dan PizzutaSep 8, 2022
Pizzuta offers bold 2022 predictions: Trey Lance finishes top-10 in EPA per dropback, DK Metcalf lands top-10 in receiving yards, the Giants finish with the league's worst record, Maxx Crosby leads the NFL in sacks, Desmond Ridder outplays and starts more games than Kenny Pickett, the Panthers grab a wild card, Justin Herbert wins MVP, and the Chiefs beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
Published in writing · Sharp Football AnalysisRead the original
What Dan Pizzuta said
If we add another layer to Andy Reid's involvement, let's say the win comes over the Philadelphia Eagles.
- Where it was published
- Sharp Football Analysis
- The piece
- Bold Predictions For The 2022 NFL Season: MVP, Super Bowl Winner, Fewest Wins | Sharp Football
- The original
- The copy as archived Oct 1, 2022 · the live page
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 8, 2022
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Too vague | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Champions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Positional Finishes | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Award Picks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Super Bowl Picks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Season Win Totals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
How each call scored
9 claims — 3 positional finishes, 1 award pick, 1 conference champion, 1 depth chart call, 1 playoff pick, 1 season win total and 1 super bowl pick — the 8 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 8 calls we can check have settled, averaging 53.1 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Conference Champions1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
“let's say the win comes over the Philadelphia Eagles.”
PHI and KC wonpicked PHI100Hit100 − 50 naive = 50 × 2 difficulty = +100 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
Positional Finishes2 close calls · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Maxx Crosby to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks
“Maxx Crosby leads the league in sacks”
Finished #4called #1 · by sacks75Close75 − 0 naive = 75 × 2 difficulty = +150 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 150
- player:
- Maxx Crosby
- season:
- 2022
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- defensive line
- ranked by:
- sacks
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 19
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
DK Metcalf to finish top 10 at his position, by receiving yards
“DK Metcalf Finishes In the Top 10 For Receiving Yards”
Finished #15called #10 · by receiving yards58.33Close58.33 − 16.67 naive = 41.66 × 2 difficulty = +83.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 83.33
- player:
- DK Metcalf
- season:
- 2022
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 58.33
- baseline:
- 16.67
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- receiving yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 25
- actual finish:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 10
Trey Lance to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
“Trey Lance Finishes as a Top 10 QB ... we'll call it top-10 in EPA per dropback”
Finished #63called #10 · by passing yards0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Trey Lance
- season:
- 2022
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 45
- actual finish:
- 63
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 10
Award Picks1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
- Patrick Mahomes woncalled Justin Herbert0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Depth Chart Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Desmond Ridder to be 1st on the depth chart
“Desmond Ridder outplays and outstarts Kenny Pickett ... The Falcons are going to be a much worse team overall, which would give a clearer path for Ridder starts.”
No. 2called No. 1 · by passing yards91.67Hit91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Desmond Ridder
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Super Bowl Picks1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
- KC won itpicked KC100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- KC
- runner up:
- PHI
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Playoff Picks1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs
“The Carolina Panthers will make the playoffs ... this team could sneak a wild card berth in a weaker NFC.”
Missed the playoffs0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- skill:
- −200
- season:
- 2022
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Season Win Totals · 1 too vague to checkShow ▸Hide ▾
“The New York Giants will finish with the worst record”
—Too vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
Who this take is about
Philadelphia Eagles, Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders, Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons, DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers, Trey Lance, New York Giants
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Positional Finishes · Puka Nacua · Close 75
Nick Wright picked the Ravens to beat Houston this weekend even with Lamar Jackson possibly out (leaning on Derrick Henry and Cooper Rush), the Chiefs to win in Jacksonville, and the Rams to beat the 49ers on Thursday night. They also laid out an AFC playoff field of Bills, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts, projected the Chiefs' receiver pecking order once Rashee Rice returns, and called Justin Jefferson the best receiver in football with Puka Nacua a top-five receiver.Rich Hribar · Positional Finishes · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Hribar published their 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how they prioritize drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.Chris Brockman · Positional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Hit 100
Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called their shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.Pat Gustavson · Positional Finishes · Josh Allen · Miss 17
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.Rich Eisen · Positional Finishes · George Pickens · Hit 100
Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said they don't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.Chad Ochocinco Johnson · Positional Finishes · Christian Gonzalez · Miss 0
Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. They also remind listeners they called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season.