Chris Brockman· May 26, 2025
Brockman predicts the Patriots win 10-plus games in the coming season for the first time since Tom Brady, floating a 10-7 record based on their schedule. He also expects Caleb Williams to make a massive leap and finish top five in MVP voting, which he agrees implies an 11- or 12-win Bears season and Coach of the Year for Ben Johnson.
“The Patriots are gonna win 10 plus games this year for the first time since Tom Brady.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 season win totals, 1 award pick and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 30 out of 100, against 3.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Coach Award PicksMay 26, 2025
Ben Johnson to win Coach of the Year
“You're talking about Ben Johnson coach of the year. You're that's what you're talking about. That's what I'm talking about.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Ben Johnson
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin O'Connell, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Mike Vrabel
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksCaleb WilliamsChicago BearsMay 26, 2025
Caleb Williams to win MVP (top-five finish)
“Caleb Williams is gonna take a massive leap. I'm talking top five MVP incoming.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Caleb Williams
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsChicago BearsMay 26, 2025
Chicago Bears to finish with 11 wins
“That means you're talking about eleven, twelve win season there... That's what I'm talking about.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 15+170 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- 170
- what happened:
- 11
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 15
- predicted:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsNew England PatriotsMay 26, 2025
New England Patriots to finish with 10 wins
“The Patriots are gonna win 10 plus games this year for the first time since Tom Brady. ... I think ten and seven is not unrealistic looking at this schedule.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 14
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
- Adam ChudwinGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsHit · 100In his annual game-by-game Bears prediction, Chudwin went through all 17 games and landed on a 12-5 season for Chicago.
- John BreechGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsHit · 100A CBS Sports piece predicts the week each NFL team will suffer its first loss, effectively picking winners in each of those games, and names the Ravens as the league's final undefeated team after a 7-0 start.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · San Francisco 49ersClose · 60Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Denver BroncosMiss · 20Nick Wright gave his early AFC win-total leans: overs on the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders, plus projected win ranges for the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Broncos, and predicted the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.
- JP AcostaSeason Win Totals · New York GiantsClose · 40Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.