Lakshya Jain#14 of 21 election pundits · Sep 27, 2024

Presenting Split Ticket's model update, they rate Harris a slight favorite for the presidency, gives Republicans a strong chance of taking the Senate with a 51-48 seat edge in their favored column, and makes Democrats modest favorites to retake the House with 215 seats favored to Republicans' 208. They also call individual races: Moreno favored in Ohio, Republicans likely to flip Montana, Scott and Cruz favored in Florida and Texas, Gallego favored over Lake in Arizona, Rosen Likely Democratic in Nevada, Theriault a slight favorite over Golden in Maine's 2nd, and NY-04 Leans Democratic.

Published in writing · Split TicketRead the original

10 of 15calls landed10 hits · 2 close calls · 3 misses · all settled

72Average accuracyout of 100, across 15 calls

48A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

9Races calledevery call on each below

#14Lakshya Jain’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Lakshya Jain said

In the Senate, Republicans remain favorites, with the model giving them a 79% chance of retaking the chamber.

Lakshya Jain, the lead quote

Where it was published: Split Ticket
The piece: Temperature Check (9/27): House, Senate, and Presidency
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 27, 2024
Election DayNov 5, 2024
GradedOct 9, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses
Race Winners	7	0	2
Control of Congress	1	0	1
Seat Counts	2	2	0
All	10	2	3

How each call scored

15 checkable claims — 9 race winners, 4 seat counts and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 15 have settled, averaging 72 out of 100, against 48 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Race Winners7 hits · 2 missesShow ▸

Austin Theriault to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Maine's district 2
“with our model actually finding him a slight underdog against state senator Austin Theriault”
Jared Forrest Golden woncalled Austin Theriault
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.05 difficulty = −105 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-me-02
election year:
2024
skill:
−105
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a slight underdog against state senator Austin Theriault
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Jared Forrest Golden
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Maine's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Austin Theriault
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Rick Scott to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Florida
“Our model gives Rick Scott and Ted Cruz 73% and 71% chances of winning reelection, respectively.”
Rick Scott woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.05 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
73%
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Rick Scott
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rick Scott
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Bernie Moreno to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
“Ohio’s Senate race is a tossup but our model considers Republican Bernie Moreno a favorite to win in November.”
Bernard F. Moreno woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.05 difficulty = +105 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
105
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a favorite to win in November
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bernard F. Moreno
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 4
“Our model already placed his district at Leans Democratic, giving him just a 26% chance of retaining his seat.”
Laura Gillen woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.05 difficulty = +105 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ny-04
election year:
2024
skill:
105
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Laura Gillen
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 4
decided in the:
general
they said:
Laura Gillen
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Ruben Gallego to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
“Out west, Democrat Ruben Gallego has a 77% chance of defeating Republican Kari Lake”
Ruben Gallego woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.05 difficulty = +105 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-az
election year:
2024
skill:
105
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
a 77% chance of defeating Republican Kari Lake
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ruben Gallego
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ruben Gallego
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Jacky Rosen to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
“in Nevada, Senator Jacky Rosen has retained a significant polling lead despite the close presidential matchup, and her race sits at Likely Democratic”
Jacky S. Rosen woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.05 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jacky S. Rosen
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jacky S. Rosen
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Kamala Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
“Kamala Harris remains a very slight favorite over Donald Trump for the presidency, with our latest model update giving her a 57% chance of winning the presidency”
Donald Trump woncalled Kamala Harris
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.05 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a 57% chance of winning the presidency
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Republicans to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
“Our model now gives Republicans an 83% chance of flipping the seat”
Tim Sheehy woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.05 difficulty = +105 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
105
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
an 83% chance of flipping the seat
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Ted Cruz to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
“Our model gives Rick Scott and Ted Cruz 73% and 71% chances of winning reelection, respectively.”
Ted Cruz woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.05 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
71%
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

Control of Congress1 hit · 1 missShow ▸

“Democrats remain slight favorites in the House, with a 61% chance to retake the chamber”
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.05 difficulty = −105 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2024
skill:
−105
topic:
elections
in their words:
a 61% chance to retake the chamber
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
“In the Senate, Republicans remain favorites, with the model giving them a 79% chance of retaking the chamber.”
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.05 difficulty = +105 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
105
topic:
elections
in their words:
a 79% chance of retaking the chamber
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

Seat Counts2 hits · 2 close callsShow ▸

“Our model shows Democrats favored in 215 seats, while Republicans are favored in 208 seats; 12 seats are tossups.”
220called 208
40Close
40 − 90 naive = −50 × 1.05 difficulty = −52.5 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
220
skill:
−52.5
topic:
elections
what happened:
220
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
90
they said:
208
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
“Currently, Republicans are favored in 51 seats to the Democrats’ 48.”
47called 48
80Hit
80 − 20 naive = 60 × 1.05 difficulty = +63 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Democratic
seats after:
47
skill:
63
topic:
elections
what happened:
47
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
80
baseline:
20
they said:
48
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
seats before:
51
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
51
Think this is wrong?
“Currently, Republicans are favored in 51 seats to the Democrats’ 48.”
53called 51
60Close
60 − 20 naive = 40 × 1.05 difficulty = +42 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
53
skill:
42
topic:
elections
what happened:
53
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
20
they said:
51
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
seats before:
49
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
49
Think this is wrong?
“Our model shows Democrats favored in 215 seats, while Republicans are favored in 208 seats; 12 seats are tossups.”
215called 215
100Hit
100 − 90 naive = 10 × 1.05 difficulty = +10.5 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Democratic
seats after:
215
skill:
10.5
topic:
elections
what happened:
215
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
100
baseline:
90
they said:
215
days before the vote when called:
38
difficulty:
1.05
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?

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