Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 22, 2025
Brockman argued only about five teams can realistically win the Super Bowl, naming the Bills, Eagles, Ravens and Chargers among them; they also picked Justin Herbert as MVP through three weeks, called the Colts a top-five team with Daniel Jones as an MVP finalist, said the Bears will finish top two in the NFC North, said the Bengals' season is cooked and they'll pick in the top 10, said the Rams are the only NFC threat to the Eagles, and said the Bucs have a team-of-destiny feel.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Chris Brockman said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromIt feels like there's only about five teams that can win the Super Bowl.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 3: Herbert is MVP, Packers Fall, Bears Rise, Bengals Cooked & More
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 22, 2025
- GradedAug 13–Oct 7, 2026
- 1Power Rankings“But right now, through three weeks, Rich, the Colts are top five team in the NFL.”
- 2Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl“the Rams are still the only threat to the Eagles getting back to the Super Bowl in the NFC”
- 3Justin Herbert to win MVP“Justin Herbert. He's the MVP through the first three weeks. Hands down.”
- 4Cincinnati Bengals to pick “picking in the top 10 this year” (picks 1–10)“Their season is absolutely cooked, and they're gonna be picking in the top 10 this year.”
- 5Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl“Look, man. I have them to win the Super Bowl, but it seems like we crown the Packers a little too early.”
- 6Daniel Jones to win MVP finalist“Danny Diamonds, Indiana Jones. He's gonna be an MVP finalist.”
- 7Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat expectations“The Bucks have that team of destiny feel to them after the first three games.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “But right now, through three weeks, Rich, the Colts are top…”1 | Power Rankings | Ranked #16 | 0 | 50 | −94.5 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl2 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Justin Herbert to win MVP3 | Award Picks | Matthew Stafford won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals to pick “picking in the top 10 this year” (picks 1–10)4 | Team Draft Slot Calls | Picked at 41 | 26.11 | 73.84 | −90.22 | |
| Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl5 | Super Bowl Picks | SEA won it | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Daniel Jones to win MVP finalist6 | Award Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat expectations7 | Surprise Team Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 7 calls · 5 misses · 2 waiting | 5.2 | 24.8 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 2 award picks, 1 conference champion, 1 power ranking, 1 super bowl pick, 1 surprise team call and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 5.2 out of 100, against 24.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
“But right now, through three weeks, Rich, the Colts are top five team in the NFL.”
What happenedRanked #16called #50Miss · naive 500this call−50a naive guess=−50worse than naive×1.89difficulty=−94.5skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- IND
- naive:
- finishes where it finished last season (20)
- skill:
- −94.5
- season:
- 2025
- window:
- top 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- settled by:
- final standings: win percentage, then point differential
- actual rank:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- clubs ranked:
- 32
- predicted rank:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- zero at places out:
- 8
2Conference ChampionsPhiladelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked PHI0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.89difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
3Award PicksJustin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Justin Herbert0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.89difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Justin Herbert
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
4Team Draft Slot CallsCincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to pick “picking in the top 10 this year” (picks 1–10)
What happenedPicked at 4126.11Miss · naive 73.8426.11this call−73.84a naive guess=−47.73worse than naive×1.89difficulty=−90.22skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CIN
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- they picked 17 the year before
- skill:
- −90.22
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 26.11
- baseline:
- 73.84
- actual pick:
- 41
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- picking in the top 10 this year (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 16
5Super Bowl PicksGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked GB0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.89difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.89
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 16
6Award PicksDaniel JonesIndianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones to win MVP finalist
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
7Surprise Team CallsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat expectations
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
5.2naive 24.8
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.Dalton Feely · Trade and Signing Calls · Chris Godwin Jr. · Hit 100
Feenie predicted Chris Godwin stays in Tampa Bay, Josh Sweat reunites with Jonathan Gannon in Arizona, Ronnie Stanley signs with New England, Jevon Holland lands in Indianapolis, Khalil Mack joins Washington, Asante Samuel Jr. goes to San Francisco, Najee Harris to the Raiders and Bobby Wagner to Dallas.Bill Huber · Game Outcome Picks · Green Bay Packers · Hit 100
Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite their rib injury. They also sketch the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Willie Colon · Award Picks · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.