Lakshya Jain· Oct 26, 2024
Split Ticket's model makes Kamala Harris a narrow 53% favorite in the Electoral College, with Harris the slightest favorite in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada and Trump slightly ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. It also has Republicans as significant favorites to take the Senate and Democrats marginally favored (52%) to flip the House.
“Our forecast yet again gives Kamala Harris a 53% chance of winning the Electoral College.”
published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 2 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 10 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2024
“Our forecast yet again gives Kamala Harris a 53% chance of winning the Electoral College.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- a 53% chance of winning the Electoral College
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2024
“She remains the narrowest of favorites in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-mi
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- the narrowest of favorites
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2024
“She remains the narrowest of favorites in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-wi
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- the narrowest of favorites
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2024
“She remains the narrowest of favorites in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-pa
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- the narrowest of favorites
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2024
“She remains the narrowest of favorites in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-nv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- the narrowest of favorites
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2024
“while Trump maintains a slight edge in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-nc
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- a slight edge
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Chamber ControlOct 26, 2024
“Democrats remain marginally favored to flip the chamber, but at 52%, this race is tighter than ever before... we'd probably pick the Democrats if we had to”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -101
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- Democrats remain marginally favored to flip the chamber, but at 52%
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- they said:
- Democratic
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
- Chamber ControlOct 26, 2024
“Our Senate update should come as no surprise, as Republicans remain significant favorites to flip the chamber.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- Republicans remain significant favorites to flip the chamber
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2024
“while Trump maintains a slight edge in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-az
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- a slight edge
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 26, 2024
“while Trump maintains a slight edge in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-ga
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- a slight edge
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.