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Kent SwansonJan 28, 2026

Kent ranks Miami defensive end Ruben Bain as their No. 1 player in the class and Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love No. 2, comparing Love to Bijan Robinson and saying Love won't last to the Chiefs' ninth pick. They rank the three top receivers Mekhi Lemmon, Carnell Tate, Jordan Tyson, and pegs a group of mid-round running backs as third-round values.

Said on air, transcribed by us · KC Sports Network (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 3calls landed1 close call · 2 misses · 3 waiting
33.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 6Settled3 still waiting
3Waitingnot graded yet

What Kent Swanson said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think it's love or bust.
Kent Swanson, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
AHPKC 1/28: An Amateur's Guide to Pick No. 9 in the 2026 NFL Draft
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidJan 28
  2. GradedAug 18
  1. 1Jonah Coleman to be picked “worth a third round pick” (picks 65–100)“There's Jonah Coleman from Washington who's very good... I think all those guys are probably worth a third round pick somewhere.”
  2. 2Emmett Johnson to be picked “worth a third round pick” (picks 65–100)“Emmett Johnson, the the Nebraska running back. I think all those guys are probably worth a third round pick somewhere.”
  3. 3Jadarian Price to be picked “worth a third round pick” (picks 65–100)“Jadarian Price out of Notre Dame... I think all those guys are probably worth a third round pick somewhere.”
  4. 4Top Player Lists“So I think I go lemon. Then I go carnal Tate... Jordan Tyson is the smoothest, prettiest route runner... But I think that's how I'd stack them right now.”
  5. 5Jeremiyah Love to be picked “isn't gonna be on the board at nine”“I think that means that Jeremiah Love isn't gonna be on the board at nine when they pick. I I think I don't think he's gonna be there if I'm being honest with you.”
  6. 6Top Player Lists“So I gave you Ruben Bane is, like, my number one. Yeah. My number two is, I think, who the best player best football player in this draft is. It's Jeremiah Love.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks and 2 top player lists — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 33.9 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
worth a third round pick (picks 65–100)They said
108What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksJonah Coleman

    Jonah Coleman to be picked “worth a third round pick” (picks 65–100)

    What happenedWent 108
    70.71Close · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Jonah Coleman
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    108
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    70.71
    predicted pick:
    worth a third round pick (picks 65–100)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Mock Draft PicksEmmett Johnson

    Emmett Johnson to be picked “worth a third round pick” (picks 65–100)

    What happenedWent 161
    7.12Miss · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Emmett Johnson
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    7.12
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    161
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    7.12
    predicted pick:
    worth a third round pick (picks 65–100)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Mock Draft PicksJadarian Price

    Jadarian Price to be picked “worth a third round pick” (picks 65–100)

    What happenedWent 32
    23.94Miss · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Jadarian Price
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    23.94
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    32
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    23.94
    predicted pick:
    worth a third round pick (picks 65–100)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  4. 4Top Player Lists

    “So I think I go lemon. Then I go carnal Tate... Jordan Tyson is the smoothest, prettiest route runner... But I think that's how I'd stack them right now.”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  5. 5Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah Love

    Jeremiyah Love to be picked “isn't gonna be on the board at nine”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  6. 6Top Player Lists

    “So I gave you Ruben Bane is, like, my number one. Yeah. My number two is, I think, who the best player best football player in this draft is. It's Jeremiah Love.”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    33.9naive 50

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