Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 6, 2025

Eisen argued the Lions have the grit, smarts and personnel to win the NFC and reach the Super Bowl, predicted Josh Allen wins MVP, and laid out their projected MVP top five with Jared Goff finishing third and Joe Burrow sneaking into the group alongside Saquon Barkley and Lamar Jackson.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · 4 waiting

50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2 of 6Settled4 still waiting

#38Rich Eisen’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Eisen said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

They have the smarts and they have the personnel somehow, some way to actually win this conference.

Rich Eisen, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 18: A Rookie Will Make it to Championship Weekend
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 6, 2025
GradedAug 13–17, 2026

1Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl“I think what I saw out of the Lions is the grit that would require them to actually, go to the Super Bowl... they have the smarts and they have the personnel somehow, some way to actually win this conference.”
2Josh Allen to win MVP“rookie quarterback against MVP quarterback, which is what I believe Josh Allen's gonna wind up being with all due respect to everybody else”
3Lamar Jackson to win MVP voting top five“let's let's just quickly here guess who the five final five are. Okay. Saquon? Should be. And Goff and Allen and Lamar.”
4Saquon Barkley to win MVP voting top five“He'll be he'll be in the top five.”
5Joe Burrow to win MVP voting top five“I think Burrow's gonna sneak in there.”
6Jared Goff to win third in MVP voting“Goff Goff's gonna be third. I I I'm with you. I'll just push back and say this is an overreaction and say it's gonna be Goff.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl¹	Conference Champions	PHI and KC won	0	100	−100
Josh Allen to win MVP²	Award Picks	Josh Allen won	100	0	+100
Lamar Jackson to win MVP voting top five³	Award Picks	—	—	—	—
Saquon Barkley to win MVP voting top five⁴	Award Picks	—	—	—	—
Joe Burrow to win MVP voting top five⁵	Award Picks	—	—	—	—
Jared Goff to win third in MVP voting⁶	Award Picks	—	—	—	—
6 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · 4 waiting			50	50

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 5 award picks and 1 conference champion — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Conference Champions Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked DET
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
How this was scored
skill:
−100
they picked:
DET
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
champions:
PHI, KC
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
2Award Picks Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win MVP
What happenedJosh Allen won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
skill:
100
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
who won:
Josh Allen
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Award Picks Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson to win MVP voting top five
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
4Award Picks Saquon Barkley Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley to win MVP voting top five
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
5Award Picks Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow to win MVP voting top five
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
6Award Picks Jared Goff Detroit Lions
Jared Goff to win third in MVP voting
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 50