Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 9, 2026
Zierlein says the Texans should target a guard at pick 28 (likely after trading back), naming the Texas A&M guard and Oregon guard as targets, says the Penn State guard will be gone by then, and that Spencer Fano won't be available at 28 but shouldn't be drafted as a tackle inside the top 10. They also say Caleb Lomu will be drafted before 28 and that in their most recent mock they gave the Texans Lomu, and did not have Ty Simpson in the first round.
Said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)Hear the original
What Lance Zierlein said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo if he were available at 28, I would a 100% take him. And I'm just gonna figure it out because I know he's a good player. I don't think he'll be there.
- Where it was said
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)
- The episode
- 03/09 Hour 2: Guest Bun B stops by with Trill Burgers & Tenders + Texans draft predictions
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 9
- GradedOct 1
- 1Spencer Fano to be picked “not inside the top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)“Like, you can't draft him as a tackle. Not 32 and an eights armed, not inside the top 10 picks. So if he were available at 28, I would a 100% take him... I don't think he'll be there.”
- 2Caleb Tiernan to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)“This guy, Caleb Tiernan from Northwestern. These are two second round tackles with short arms who are gonna move down inside the guard.”
- 3Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 28“I gave them in my last mock draft. I gave the Texans Caleb Lomew at tackle.”
- 4Kade Casey to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)“Guard cage, Casey from Boise State. This guy, Caleb Tiernan from Northwestern. These are two second round tackles with short arms”
- 5Monroe Freeling to be picked “way overdrafted”“Monroe Freeling from, Georgia away overdrafted.”
- 6Caleb Lomu to be picked “drafted before pick 28”“I still think Caleb loan you, for example, I think he'll get drafted by then.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Fano to be picked “not inside the top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 9 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Caleb Tiernan to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 97 | 23.94 | 50 | — | |
| Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 283 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 28 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Kade Casey to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)4 | Mock Draft Picks | Went undrafted | 0 | 50 | — | |
| Monroe Freeling to be picked “way overdrafted”5 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Caleb Lomu to be picked “drafted before pick 28”6 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 2 hits · 2 misses · 2 waiting | 56 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 56 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Spencer Fano to be picked “not inside the top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)
What happenedWent 9100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- not inside the top 10 picks (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Mock Draft PicksCaleb Tiernan
Caleb Tiernan to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
What happenedWent 9723.94Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Tiernan
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 23.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 97
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 23.94
- predicted pick:
- second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
3Mock Draft PicksCaleb LomuHouston Texans
Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 28
What happenedWent 28mocked at 28100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Lomu
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 28
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Kade Casey to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
What happenedWent undrafted0Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kade Casey
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
5Mock Draft PicksMonroe Freeling
Monroe Freeling to be picked “way overdrafted”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Caleb Lomu to be picked “drafted before pick 28”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
56naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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