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Lance Zierlein· Mar 9, 2026

Zierlein says the Texans should target a guard at pick 28 (likely after trading back), naming the Texas A&M guard and Oregon guard as targets, says the Penn State guard will be gone by then, and that Spencer Fano won't be available at 28 but shouldn't be drafted as a tackle inside the top 10. He also says Caleb Lomu will be drafted before 28 and that in his most recent mock he gave the Texans Lomu, and did not have Ty Simpson in the first round.

“So if he were available at 28, I would a 100% take him. And I'm just gonna figure it out because I know he's a good player. I don't think he'll be there.”

said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 31 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
not inside the top 10 picks (picks 1–10)They said
9What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoMar 9, 2026

    Spencer Fano to be picked “not inside the top 10 picks” (picks 1–10)

    “Like, you can't draft him as a tackle. Not 32 and an eights armed, not inside the top 10 picks. So if he were available at 28, I would a 100% take him... I don't think he'll be there.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Spencer Fano
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    9
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    not inside the top 10 picks (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksCaleb LomuHouston TexansMar 9, 2026

    Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 28

    “I gave them in my last mock draft. I gave the Texans Caleb Lomew at tackle.”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Caleb Lomew
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    28
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksCaleb TiernanMar 9, 2026

    Caleb Tiernan to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    “This guy, Caleb Tiernan from Northwestern. These are two second round tackles with short arms who are gonna move down inside the guard.”

    Miss · 24Scored 23.94a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Caleb Tiernan
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    23.94
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    97
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    23.94
    predicted pick:
    second round (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksKade CaseyMar 9, 2026

    Kade Casey to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)

    “Guard cage, Casey from Boise State. This guy, Caleb Tiernan from Northwestern. These are two second round tackles with short arms”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Kade Casey
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    second round (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksMonroe FreelingMar 9, 2026

    Monroe Freeling to be picked “way overdrafted”

    “Monroe Freeling from, Georgia away overdrafted.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Mock Draft PicksCaleb LomuMar 9, 2026

    Caleb Lomu to be picked “drafted before pick 28”

    “I still think Caleb loan you, for example, I think he'll get drafted by then.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

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