Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 16, 2026
Lance picked the Patriots to beat the Texans 20-13, saying they could not see where Houston's offensive production would come from against New England's big, physical corners.
Said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)Hear the original
What Lance Zierlein said
I got the Patriots 20 to 13.
- Where it was said
- John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)
- The episode
- 01/16 Hour 3: NFL playoff predictions + News of the Weird
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJan 16
- GradedAug 13
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 88.1 out of 100, against 76.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
Score PredictionsNew England Patriots
New England Patriots 20 — Texans 13
VerdictHit88.1Hit · naive 76.2688.1this call−76.26a naive guess=11.84better than naive×1difficulty=+11.84skillClosing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3, total 40.5 · this 20–13 calls a bigger Patriots win (by 7) and fewer points (33).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 16-28
- skill:
- 11.84
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 88.1
- baseline:
- 76.26
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.03
- predicted margin:
- 7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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