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Julian EdelmanSep 9, 2026

Edelman picked the Patriots to win the season opener in Seattle, saying New England's offseason additions and the bad taste from the previous season would carry them, and gave a final score of 28-24.

Said on air or in an interview · The Richard Sherman Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

48Close · out of 100
Seahawks 13–10What happenedcalled Patriots by 4 · lost by 3
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
47.62This callout of 100
−104.76Skillafter difficulty

What Julian Edelman said

Twenty-eight. Seattle, twenty-four.
Our reading: New England Patriots 28 — Seattle 24
The episode
The Richard Sherman Podcast - Week 1 NFL PREDICTIONS w/ Julian Edelman: Patriots vs. Seahawks, 49ers vs. Rams, Cowboys
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 9
  2. PlayedSep 9
  3. GradedSep 11

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 47.6 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots 28 — Seattle 24

    What happenedSeahawks 13–10called Patriots by 4 · lost by 3
    47.62Close · naive 100
    47.62this call100a naive guess−52.38worse than naive2difficulty−104.76skill

    Closing line (Sep 9): Seahawks by 3, total 44.5 · this 28–24 calls a Patriots win (by 4; the line gave the Patriots 40%) and more points (52).

    How this was scored
    score:
    10-13
    skill:
    −104.76
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    47.62
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    3
    predicted margin:
    4
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

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