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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
30% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
349 / 1,158
graded
809 still pending
By season
301–325 of 1,158
Philadelphia Eagles to win the division
3. Philadelphia (NFC East champion) ... Our simulation has the Eagles running away with the division.
Buffalo Bills to win the division
4. Buffalo Bills (AFC East champion)
Detroit Lions to win the division
2. Detroit Lions (NFC North champion)
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
1. Seattle Seahawks (NFC West champion) ... Our simulation has the SEAHAWKS winning the division.
Houston Texans to win the division
2. Houston Texans (AFC South champion)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
The Bucs at 35%. ... I still believe in Tampa.
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
And then in the NFC West, another 35%. And that is Seattle. ... I think Seattle has earned favorite status
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division
I like Kansas City. They are the favorite to win the division
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
So I I picked the Bengals to win the division just because I've been high on the Bengals.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
And I've got the Bucks winning the division.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
something about this Bucks team and the way they rally around Baker Mayfield makes me feel like they're going to do the same and... carry them to victory in this division
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
Somehow the Bucks winning the division, Saints second.
Buffalo Bills to win the division
I like Buffalo more than most, largest favorites to win their division.
Dallas Cowboys to win the division
I'm high on the Dallas Cowboys this year and low on everyone else in the East.
Detroit Lions to win the division
The Minnesota Vikings are definitely an interesting flier at +450, but I'll take the Lions at +175.
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
I'm taking the Bengals to not only win the AFC North, but make a very deep playoff run as well.
Houston Texans to win the division
AFC South — Houston Texans (+105) Dajani: "I liked the Houston Texans defense better than the Seattle Seahawks defense last year!"
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
There's much more value in taking the reigning Super Bowl champion at +215 or the San Francisco 49ers at +305 and rooting for the downfall of this newly constructed super team.
New Orleans Saints to win the division
The Saints have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year and play in the worst division, so +255 feels like pretty good value.
Buffalo Bills to win the division
The Buffalo Bills will take their spot atop the AFC East once again with help from offseason addition D.J. Moore.
Denver Broncos to win the division
I think the price here at +210 warrants some backing. I feel like people constantly look down on the Broncos for some reason.
Detroit Lions to win the division
Detroit has the easiest schedule in the NFL entering 2026 ... that should help them stack up wins in what should be a wildly competitive NFC North.
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
I'll take the value and quiet confidence of Seattle to win the NFC West.
New Orleans Saints to win the division
With one of the easiest paths in the league, New Orleans can be one of the surprise teams of 2026.
New England Patriots to win the division
It'll be neck-and-neck with Buffalo, but the value is on the Patriots repeating as division champs.