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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,385
graded
1,466 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3351–3375 of 4,385
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked “top 20” (picks 1–20)
I even like Vega Yowani from Penn State, kinda in that mix as well, could go top 20.
Arvell Reese to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
Arbel Reese, Sonny Styles, the Ohio State duo, they could both could go top 10.
Jeff Caldwell to be picked “top 100 pick” (picks 1–100)
I would bet right now that guy's a top 100 pick. In this class specifically
Jeff CaldwellCincinnati Bengals
Sonny Styles to be picked “top 10” (picks 1–10)
Arbel Reese, Sonny Styles, the Ohio State duo, they could both could go top 10.
Colton Hood to be picked “back half of the first round” (picks 1–32)
I could maybe see a guy like Colton Hood sneaking into the back half of the first round with a good, like, post season circuit.
Ty Simpson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
but he's probably going to go in the first round because there is no other quarterback
Caleb Banks to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Kayla Banks from Florida, I would imagine goes first round simply based off of guys crazy gifted for GT.
Peter Woods to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
Peter Woods from Clemson is a surefire first rounder at this point.
Dante Moore to be picked “picks one and two overall”
Fernando Mendoza going to the Las Vegas Raiders as well as Dante Moore going to the New York Jets
David Bailey to be picked “surefire top 10, top 15 selection” (picks 1–10)
tied with surefire top 10, top 15 selection in this year's draft David Bailey out of Texas Tech
Elijah Sarratt to be picked “off the board before pick 42”
both Elijah Sarat out of Indiana as well as Chris Bell out of Louisville were off the board
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 8
the decision right off the bat... is Caleb Downs, the Ohio State safety at an array overall... You draft him number eight overall
Zachariah Branch to be picked at number 73
Georgia wide receiver Zachariah Branch, who I took in round three at pick number 73
Nadame Tucker to be picked at number 148
In round five, pick one forty eight, I went with Western Michigan edge rusher Nadame Tucker
Tacario Davis to be picked at number 170
Then in round five, I picked one seventy. Went one seven zero, I went with Washington corner, Takario Davis
Tanner Koziol to be picked at number 189
we closed out this draft with... sixth round steal at pick one eighty nine with Houston tight end Tanner, Koziel
Kaytron Allen to be picked at number 137
The other selection at round in round four, just a few picks later at one thirty seven... We're gonna go with Penn State running back, Caitron Allen
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “off the board within the top seven selections” (picks 1–7)
running back out of Notre Dame, Jeremiah Love... off the board early within the top seven selections
Arvell Reese to be picked “off the board within the top seven selections” (picks 1–7)
Also off the board were Ohio State linebacker, a Arbel Reese
Fernando Mendoza to be picked “picks one and two overall”
both of the top quarterbacks end up flying off the board at picks one and two overall with, Fernando Mendoza going to the Las Vegas Raiders as well as Dante Moore going to the New York Jets
Rueben Bain to be picked “off the board within the top seven selections” (picks 1–7)
Miami edge rusher, Reuben Bain junior... off the board early within the top seven selections
Jordyn Tyson to be picked “off the board within the top seven selections” (picks 1–7)
no Jordan Tyson nor Jeremiah Love on the board for the offensive side either
Emmanuel Pregnon to be picked at number 42
Let's jump real quick to pick 42, which is in the second round... So I went with Oregon offensive lineman, Emmanuel Pregnon
Tim Keenan to be picked “round four”
In round four, I went with two selections here. First of which a defensive tackle, I went with Tim Keenan the third
Chris Bell to be picked “off the board before pick 42”
both Elijah Sarat out of Indiana as well as Chris Bell out of Louisville were off the board
