Chuck PaganoSep 6, 2022
Pagano picked Josh Allen MVP, Jonathan Taylor OPOY, Micah Parsons DPOY, Chris Olave OROY, Aidan Hutchinson DROY, Jameis Winston Comeback Player and Josh McDaniels Coach of the Year.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Chuck Pagano said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromChuck Pagano, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: MVP, Rookies of the Year, and More - The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Sep 7, 2022
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidSep 5, 2022
- GradedAug 5, 2026
- 1Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: ... Pagano ...)”
- 2Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year“1. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (6 votes: Barber, Gannon, Pagano, ...)”
- 3Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“1. Saints WR Chris Olave (6 votes: Cassel, Koetter, Pagano, ...)”
- 4Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player“1. Bills QB Josh Allen (7 votes: ... Chuck Pagano ...)”
- 5Josh McDaniels to win Coach of the Year“T1. Raiders coach Josh McDaniels (3 votes: Cassel, Martz, Pagano)”
- 6Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year“1. Saints QB Jameis Winston (6 votes: Koetter, Long, Pagano, ...)”
- 7Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year“T2. Cowboys LB Micah Parsons (3 votes: Cassel, Mornhinweg, Pagano)”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year1 | Award Picks | Sauce Gardner won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year2 | Award Picks | Justin Jefferson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year3 | Award Picks | Garrett Wilson won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player4 | Award Picks | Patrick Mahomes won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Josh McDaniels to win Coach of the Year5 | Coach Award Picks | Brian Daboll won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year6 | Award Picks | Geno Smith won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year7 | Award Picks | Nick Bosa won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 calls · 7 misses · all settled | 0 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Award PicksAidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions
Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedSauce Gardner woncalled Aidan Hutchinson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aidan Hutchinson
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Sauce Gardner
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Award PicksJonathan TaylorIndianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJustin Jefferson woncalled Jonathan Taylor0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jonathan Taylor
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Justin Jefferson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Award PicksChris OlaveNew Orleans Saints
Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedGarrett Wilson woncalled Chris Olave0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Chris Olave
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Garrett Wilson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player
What happenedPatrick Mahomes woncalled Josh Allen0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Coach Award PicksLas Vegas Raiders
Josh McDaniels to win Coach of the Year
What happenedBrian Daboll woncalled Josh McDaniels0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Josh McDaniels
- naive:
- the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Brian Daboll
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Award PicksJameis WinstonNew Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedGeno Smith woncalled Jameis Winston0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jameis Winston
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Geno Smith
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
7Award PicksMicah ParsonsDallas Cowboys
Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedNick Bosa woncalled Micah Parsons0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Micah Parsons
- season:
- 2022
- who won:
- Nick Bosa
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Willie Colon · Award Picks · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Colon picked the Seahawks to win 24-14 with Sam Darnold as Super Bowl MVP.Danny Parkins · Award Picks · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Miss 0
Parkins picked Seattle to win 27-16 with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as Super Bowl MVP.