Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 8, 2025

Brockman opened with a series of week-one overreactions: Josh Allen repeats as MVP with Buffalo as the AFC's No. 1 seed, Bills-Ravens is both the game of the year and an AFC title game preview, Aaron Rodgers mirrors their 2021 MVP season with 40 TDs, the NFC Championship is played at Lambeau, the Colts are AFC South front runners, Cincinnati's slow start dooms them, Christian McCaffrey has a top-five MVP season, and the Chargers are the team to beat in the AFC West.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 10calls landed1 hit · 9 misses · 3 waiting

13.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 10 calls

24.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

10 of 13Settled3 still waiting

#36Chris Brockman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Brockman said

Josh Allen is QB one. He's gonna repeat as MVP, and the Bills are the one seed in the AFC.

Chris Brockman, the lead quote

Where it was said: Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 1: Bills' Comeback, Rodgers Revived, Russ Cooked, Who's AFC's Best & More
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 8, 2025
GradedAug 13–17, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Seeding, Byes and Home Field	0	1	1
Conference Champions	0	3	0
Game Outcome Picks	1	0	0
Division Winners	0	2	0
Positional Finishes	0	1	0
Award Picks	0	1	1
Player Season Numbers	0	1	0
Depth Chart Calls	0	0	1
All	1	9	3

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

13 checkable claims — 3 conference champions, 2 award picks, 2 division winners, 2 seeding, byes and home field, 1 depth chart call, 1 game outcome pick, 1 player season number and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

10 of 13 have settled so far, averaging 13.7 out of 100, against 24.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Seeding, Byes and Home Field1 miss · 1 waitingShow ▸

Buffalo Bills to take the top seed
“and the Bills are the one seed in the AFC”
Buffalo Bills
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
checked as:
the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
actual tier:
visitor
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where they finished last season (host)
weeks in the season:
18
claimed seed:
1
claimed tier:
bye
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Green Bay Packers to take the top seed
“The NFC championship game is gonna be played at Lambeau Field.”
Green Bay Packers
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Conference Champions3 missesShow ▸

Green Bay Packers to reach the Super Bowl
“The NFC championship game is gonna be played at Lambeau Field.”
Green Bay Packers
NE and SEA wonpicked GB
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
GB
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to reach the Super Bowl
“that was the AFC championship game preview”
Baltimore Ravens
NE and SEA wonpicked BAL
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
BAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl
“Bills Ravens is already the game of the year. Lock it up right now... and that was the AFC championship game preview.”
Buffalo Bills
NE and SEA wonpicked BUF
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
champions:
NE, SEA
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
reached the Super Bowl:
no
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?

Game Outcome Picks1 hitShow ▸

Dallas Cowboys to beat Giants
“Cowboys look better. How can you say that? Jackson Jackson Dart's gonna beat him this week.”
Dallas Cowboys
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 14): Cowboys by 4.5 · favorite pick, Cowboys about 2 in 3 (68%).
How this was scored
won:
DAL
score:
37-40
skill:
0
they picked:
DAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DAL
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Division Winners2 missesShow ▸

Indianapolis Colts to win the division
“and now the Colts are the AFC South front runners. Danny Dimes.”
Indianapolis Colts
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
IND
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Chargers to win the division
“The chargers are the team to beat in the AFC West.”
Los Angeles Chargers
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
LAC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?

Positional Finishes1 missShow ▸

Josh Allen to finish top 1 at his position, by passing yards
“Josh Allen is QB one.”
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Finished #11called #1 · by passing yards
16.67Miss
16.67 − 75 naive = −58.33 × 2 difficulty = −116.67 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−116.67
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
16.67
baseline:
75
position:
QB
ranked by:
passing yards
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
14
actual finish:
11
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
1
Think this is wrong?

Award Picks1 miss · 1 waitingShow ▸

Josh Allen to win MVP
“Josh Allen is QB one. He's gonna repeat as MVP”
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Matthew Stafford woncalled Josh Allen
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2025
who won:
Matthew Stafford
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Christian McCaffrey — MVP: top five MVP season
“CMC is back plus all the injuries means the top five MVP season is coming”
Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Player Season Numbers1 missShow ▸

Aaron Rodgers to record 40 passing tds
“It does seem like Aaron Rodgers has hit the fountain of youth, Rich. He's gonna mirror that 2021 MVP season. 4035 Tutty's incoming.”
Aaron Rodgers Pittsburgh Steelers
24called 40
20Miss
20 − 73.52 naive = −53.52 × 2 difficulty = −107.03 skill
How this was scored
naive:
20.82
skill:
−107.03
what happened:
24
player:
Aaron Rodgers
season:
2025
accuracy:
20
baseline:
73.52
they said:
40
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
28
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?

Depth Chart Calls1 waitingShow ▸

Rashawn Slater to be 1st on the depth chart
“It seems like, next year, Vershawn Slater is gonna be playing right tackle.”
Rashawn Slater Los Angeles Chargers
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

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More conference champions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.
Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.
Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.