Robert SmithSep 6, 2022

Smith picked Josh Allen MVP, Jonathan Taylor OPOY, Aaron Donald DPOY, Chris Olave OROY, Travon Walker DROY, Jameis Winston Comeback Player and Sean McDermott Coach of the Year.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

0 of 7calls landed7 misses · all settled

0Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7 of 7Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Robert Smith said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Robert Smith, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: The 33rd Team
The piece: 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: MVP, Rookies of the Year, and More - The 33rd Team
The original: The copy as archived Sep 7, 2022
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

SaidSep 5, 2022
GradedAug 5, 2026

1Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year“1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: Barber, Gannon, Martz, Smith, Tannenbaum)”
2Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year“1. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (6 votes: ... Smith ...)”
3Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“1. Saints WR Chris Olave (6 votes: ... Smith ...)”
4Travon Walker to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“2. Jaguars edge rusher Travon Walker (4 votes: Barber, Lewis, Martz, Smith)”
5Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player“1. Bills QB Josh Allen (7 votes: ... Robert Smith ...)”
6Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year“1. Saints QB Jameis Winston (6 votes: ... Smith ...)”
7Sean McDermott to win Coach of the Year“T3. Bills coach Sean McDermott (2 votes: Koetter, Smith)”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Skill
Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year¹	Award Picks	Nick Bosa won	0
Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year²	Award Picks	Justin Jefferson won	0
Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year³	Award Picks	Garrett Wilson won	0
Travon Walker to win Defensive Rookie of the Year⁴	Award Picks	Sauce Gardner won	0
Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player⁵	Award Picks	Patrick Mahomes won	0
Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year⁶	Award Picks	Geno Smith won	0
Sean McDermott to win Coach of the Year⁷	Coach Award Picks	Brian Daboll won	0
7 calls · 7 misses · all settled

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Award Picks Aaron Donald Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedNick Bosa woncalled Aaron Donald
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Aaron Donald
season:
2022
who won:
Nick Bosa
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
2Award Picks Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJustin Jefferson woncalled Jonathan Taylor
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Jonathan Taylor
season:
2022
who won:
Justin Jefferson
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Award Picks Chris Olave New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedGarrett Wilson woncalled Chris Olave
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Chris Olave
season:
2022
who won:
Garrett Wilson
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Award Picks Travon Walker Jacksonville Jaguars
Travon Walker to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedSauce Gardner woncalled Travon Walker
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Travon Walker
season:
2022
who won:
Sauce Gardner
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
5Award Picks Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player
What happenedPatrick Mahomes woncalled Josh Allen
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2022
who won:
Patrick Mahomes
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
6Award Picks Jameis Winston New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedGeno Smith woncalled Jameis Winston
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
comeback_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Jameis Winston
season:
2022
who won:
Geno Smith
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
7Coach Award Picks Buffalo Bills
Sean McDermott to win Coach of the Year
What happenedBrian Daboll woncalled Sean McDermott
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
coach_of_the_year
coach:
Sean McDermott
naive:
the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
skill:
0
season:
2022
who won:
Brian Daboll
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 0