Robert Smith· Sep 6, 2022
Smith picked Josh Allen MVP, Jonathan Taylor OPOY, Aaron Donald DPOY, Chris Olave OROY, Travon Walker DROY, Jameis Winston Comeback Player and Sean McDermott Coach of the Year.
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 7, 2022) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Award PicksAaron DonaldLos Angeles RamsSep 6, 2022
Aaron Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year
“1. Rams DT Aaron Donald (5 votes: Barber, Gannon, Martz, Smith, Tannenbaum)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Donald
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Nick Bosa
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksJonathan TaylorIndianapolis ColtsSep 6, 2022
Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year
“1. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (6 votes: ... Smith ...)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jonathan Taylor
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Justin Jefferson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksChris OlaveNew Orleans SaintsSep 6, 2022
Chris Olave to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
“1. Saints WR Chris Olave (6 votes: ... Smith ...)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Chris Olave
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Garrett Wilson
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksTravon WalkerJacksonville JaguarsSep 6, 2022
Travon Walker to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
“2. Jaguars edge rusher Travon Walker (4 votes: Barber, Lewis, Martz, Smith)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_rookie_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Travon Walker
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Sauce Gardner
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsSep 6, 2022
Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player
“1. Bills QB Josh Allen (7 votes: ... Robert Smith ...)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Patrick Mahomes
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Award PicksJameis WinstonNew Orleans SaintsSep 6, 2022
Jameis Winston to win Comeback Player of the Year
“1. Saints QB Jameis Winston (6 votes: ... Smith ...)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- comeback_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jameis Winston
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Geno Smith
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Coach Award PicksBuffalo BillsSep 6, 2022
Sean McDermott to win Coach of the Year
“T3. Bills coach Sean McDermott (2 votes: Koetter, Smith)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Sean McDermott
- naive:
- the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2022
- winner:
- Brian Daboll
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Gregg RosenthalAward Picks · Tristan WirfsMiss · 0Rosenthal picked Patrick Mahomes for MVP, Micah Parsons for Defensive Player of the Year, Jahmyr Gibbs for Offensive Player of the Year, Aaron Glenn for Coach of the Year, Travis Hunter for both Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Bill Callahan for Assistant Coach of the Year and Tristan Wirfs for Protector of the Year. He also made depth-chart calls on Adam Thielen and Jalen Coker.
- Jourdan RodrigueAward Picks · Penei SewellMiss · 0Rodrigue picked Patrick Mahomes for MVP, Jared Verse for Defensive Player of the Year, Ja'Marr Chase for Offensive Player of the Year, Mike Vrabel for Coach of the Year, TreVeyon Henderson for Offensive Rookie of the Year and Abdul Carter for Defensive Rookie of the Year, with Jesse Minter for Assistant Coach of the Year and Penei Sewell for Protector of the Year.
- Brandon SneideAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Snyder picks the Seahawks to beat the Patriots 31-23 in Super Bowl 60, believing Seattle pulls away late, and says Drake Maye will finish second in MVP voting behind Matthew Stafford.
- Nick WrightAward Picks · Rashid ShaheedMiss · 0Nick picked Seattle to win the Super Bowl 27-17, citing Seattle's defense, coaching against young quarterbacks and schedule strength, and named Rasheed Shaheed as his dark horse Super Bowl MVP.
- Chris BroussardAward Picks · Cooper KuppMiss · 0Broussard picked New England to beat Seattle 24-21, with Drake May winning Super Bowl MVP, and named Cooper Kupp as his dark horse MVP.
- Eric ManginiAward Picks · Drake MayeMiss · 0Mangini picked the Patriots 23-20 with Drake May as Super Bowl MVP, and earlier named Kayshon Boutte ("Kaeshawn Booty") as his dark horse MVP.