Rich Hribar#24 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 4, 2026
Analyzing historical running back ADP trends, Hribar names which 2026 backs best fit the profiles of dead-zone picks who beat their draft cost (Jeremiyah Love, Cam Skattebo, TreVeyon Henderson, plus veterans Breece Hall and D'Andre Swift), which most resemble historic dead-zone traps (Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams, David Montgomery), which later-round team RB1s are unlikely to pay off, and a list of bench 'darts' he prefers over popular handcuffs like Isiah Pacheco, Brian Robinson and Tank Bigsby.
Published in writing · Sharp Football AnalysisRead the original
What Rich Hribar said
The backs who closest resemble historic dead zone traps are Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams , and David Montgomery .
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- 2026 RB Fantasy Football ADP: Analyzing Historical Trends
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Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleeper Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Fantasy Bust Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | |
| All | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
How each call scored
10 checkable claims — 5 fantasy bust calls and 5 sleeper calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Sleeper Calls5 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Cam Skattebo to outplay his draft cost (the RB2 dead zone)
“If we are paring down that initial list with overlap as pass catchers, Love, Skattebo, and Henderson are the best bets.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
TreVeyon Henderson to outplay his draft cost (the RB2 dead zone)
“If we are paring down that initial list with overlap as pass catchers, Love, Skattebo, and Henderson are the best bets.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Breece Hall to outplay his draft cost (the RB2/dead-zone range)
“If looking at veteran backs currently going in the RB2/dead-zone range, Breece Hall and D'Andre Swift are the guys with a viable pass-catching resume to this point.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
D'Andre Swift to outplay his draft cost (the RB2/dead-zone range)
“If looking at veteran backs currently going in the RB2/dead-zone range, Breece Hall and D'Andre Swift are the guys with a viable pass-catching resume to this point.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jeremiyah Love to outplay his draft cost (the RB2 dead zone)
“If we are paring down that initial list with overlap as pass catchers, Love, Skattebo, and Henderson are the best bets.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Fantasy Bust Calls5 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Aaron Jones to fall short of his draft cost (outside of the RB1 range in ADP)
“That makes it tougher to bet on landing a big hit from team RB1 picks (per ADP) going later in Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White, and Aaron Jones”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Rachaad White to fall short of his draft cost (outside of the RB1 range in ADP)
“That makes it tougher to bet on landing a big hit from team RB1 picks (per ADP) going later in Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White, and Aaron Jones”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Tony Pollard to fall short of his draft cost (outside of the RB1 range in ADP)
“That makes it tougher to bet on landing a big hit from team RB1 picks (per ADP) going later in Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White, and Aaron Jones”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jaylen Warren to fall short of his draft cost (outside of the RB1 range in ADP)
“That makes it tougher to bet on landing a big hit from team RB1 picks (per ADP) going later in Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White, and Aaron Jones”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Chuba Hubbard to fall short of his draft cost (outside of the RB1 range in ADP)
“That makes it tougher to bet on landing a big hit from team RB1 picks (per ADP) going later in Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White, and Aaron Jones”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
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Harrison delivers their only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Fantasy Bust Calls · Zay Flowers · Miss 0
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Fantasy Bust Calls · Austin Ekeler · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Joe Pisapia · Fantasy Bust Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Pat Fitzmaurice · Fantasy Bust Calls · Tyreek Hill · Hit 100
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.