Charles C.W. CookeOct 7, 2026
Cooke says Florida is not competitive and expects Republicans there to win by double digits, while they never expected Republicans to carry a New Hampshire Senate race, especially in a Democratic-leaning year.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly ShowHear the original
What Charles C.W. Cooke said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI don't think Florida's in play. I'd... I expect those races to be 10 points or more.
- Where it was said
- The Megyn Kelly Show
- The episode
- The Key Midterm Issue, and Vance vs. Cruz, with Rich Lowry and Charles C.W. Cooke, Plus James Woods on His New Album and Our Culture | Ep. 1413
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 7
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Democrat to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire“New Hampshire, obviously not pleased with, but I never expect Republicans to win senate races in New Hampshire... Especially in a a blue year, I didn't think that was gonna happen.”
- 2Race Margins“I I I don't think Florida's in play. I'd... I expect those races to be 10 points or more.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire1 | Race Winners | Chris Pappas won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| “I I I don't think Florida's in play. I'd... I expect those…”2 | Race Margins | — | — | — | — | |
| 2 calls · 1 hit · 1 waiting | 100 | 100 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 1 race margin and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Democrat to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
What happenedChris Pappas woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.04difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-nh
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Chris Pappas
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Chris Pappas
- days before the vote when called:
- 26
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
“I I I don't think Florida's in play. I'd... I expect those races to be 10 points or more.”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Tom Bevan · Race Margins · Hit 81
Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.Ben Shapiro · Race Margins · Miss 6
Ahead of the midterm elections, Shapiro predicted Republican wins in several marquee races: Marco Rubio beating Val Demings in Florida's Senate race, Brian Kemp defeating Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ron DeSantis beating Charlie Crist by roughly 10 points, and Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship.Steve Deace · Race Margins · Miss 36
Deace forecast a "red tsunami": Republicans gaining roughly 54 House seats, winning 56 Senate seats, and capturing governorships in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Pennsylvania. They also said Ron DeSantis would set a Florida record for the largest GOP gubernatorial margin, that Chuck Grassley would not lose in Iowa, and that Kim Reynolds would win big.Jason Johnson · Race Margins · Miss 36
Johnson predicted Republicans would take both chambers, ending with about 230 House seats and about 53 Senate seats, and picked Lee Zeldin in New York and a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate race as their biggest upsets. They also agreed DeSantis would break Florida's GOP gubernatorial margin record.