Ryan Grim· Nov 5, 2024
Ryan Grim confirmed his prediction map was essentially Sabato's but with Nevada going to Trump, producing a 270-268 Harris electoral college win.
“I think I had Nevada going to Trump.”
said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 race margin and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 78 out of 100, against 28.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“Yeah, so you added actually two seventy two sixty eight right, like as narrow as possible. Yep, got it”
Close · 56Scored 56a naive guess scored 57-1 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -1
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 226
- in their words:
- two seventy two sixty eight
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 100
- what they counted:
- electoral_votes
- whose number:
- Kamala Harris
- accuracy:
- 56
- baseline:
- 57
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- 270
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- they won:
- no
- the naive guess:
- half the electoral college
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 86
- their party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess said:
- 269
- Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Ryan was this your mount basically. / More or less. I think I had Nevada going to Trump.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-nv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Sam WangRace MarginsHit · 88Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace MarginsHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.
- Henry OlsenRace MarginsHit · 85Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- David FrumRace MarginsClose · 72Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid.
- Tim MillerRace MarginsClose · 50Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats.
- Robby SoaveRace MarginsClose · 56Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.