Ben Shapiro· Nov 5, 2024

On election day 2024 Shapiro gave Trump a slight edge nationally and laid out a map in which Trump sweeps the Sun Belt battlegrounds (North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada) and all three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), while Virginia stays blue. He also called Senate races for Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Bernie Moreno over Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jim Justice in West Virginia.

“I'm gonna I'm gonna say slight advantage Trump.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →

13 checkable claims — 13 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 13 have settled, averaging 92.3 out of 100, against 23.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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13 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I think Trump's gonna win all of them. ... Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those states look more like Ohio than they do like Virginia, meaning I believe that they are trending red.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I think Trump's gonna win all of them. ... And as for Wisconsin, Wisconsin is a notoriously difficult state to poll.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“As far as West Virginia, that, of course, the senate seat that that is going to go to the Republicans, that that would be Jim Justice, who's gonna win that senate seat pretty easily.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I'm gonna I'm gonna say slight advantage Trump. And if I had to put out my map right now... ... here is best case scenario for Donald Trump, and I think it it actually is gonna materialize tonight.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“There's certain states that I didn't give to Trump in this map. I didn't give Trump Virginia. Virginia is trending blue. It is not trending red.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-va
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I think Eric Hovde, who's the senatorial candidate in Wisconsin who is running extremely strong in Wisconsin right now, I think Hovde wins that race.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tammy Baldwin
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Eric Hovde
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I think Moreno takes that seat. I think Sherrod Brown goes home.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bernard F. Moreno
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“By the way, I think that Dave McCormack in Pennsylvania wins that race based on the early voting numbers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dave McCormick
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Trump takes all the Sun Belt states. He takes North Carolina. He takes Georgia. I think both those are very likely.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Georgia, of course, a big swing state. I think that one is in Trump's camp. I think he's going to win that.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Arizona is very likely. ... So Arizona, you know, looks as though that is going to be, a walkaway for for Trump.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I think that he sneaks Nevada in there. ... I'd be a little surprised if he doesn't win Nevada.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“And then you get to the Rust Belt states. I think Trump... You ready for this? I think Trump's gonna win all of them. ... Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, those states look more like Ohio than they do like Virginia”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.