Lakshya Jain#14 of 21 election pundits · Oct 5, 2024

Presenting Split Ticket's forecast one month out, they put Harris at a 57% chance of winning the presidency, gives Republicans a 73% chance of a Senate majority (including an 82% chance of flipping Montana and a solid Fischer win in Nebraska, while Democrats hold their five swing-state Senate seats), and gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning the House with a 211-208 seat edge in leaners, plus district-by-district odds in ten key House tossups.

Published in writing · Split TicketRead the original

15 of 23calls landed15 hits · 1 close call · 7 misses · all settled

66.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 23 calls

55.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

19Races calledevery call on each below

#14Lakshya Jain’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Lakshya Jain said

Our model gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning the chamber

Lakshya Jain, the lead quote

Where it was published: Split Ticket
The piece: Temperature Check (10/05): The Potential Illusion Of Stability
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 5, 2024
Election DayNov 5, 2024
GradedOct 9, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses
Race Winners	13	0	6
Control of Congress	1	0	1
Seat Counts	1	1	0
All	15	1	7

How each call scored

23 checkable claims — 19 race winners, 2 control of congress and 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 23 have settled, averaging 66.1 out of 100, against 55.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Race Winners13 hits · 6 missesShow ▸

Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
“Our presidential model hasn’t moved much either, as the latest data places Harris’ chances at 57%”
Donald Trump woncalled Kamala Harris
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
57%
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
“Democrats remain substantial (although not assured) favorites to hold their seats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona.”
Ruben Gallego woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.04 difficulty = +104 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-az
election year:
2024
skill:
104
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
substantial (although not assured) favorites
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ruben Gallego
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ruben Gallego
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Zach Nunn to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Iowa's district 3
“Nunn currently has a 53% chance of defeating his Democratic opponent, Lanon Baccam”
Zach Nunn woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ia-03
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
a 53% chance
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Zach Nunn
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Iowa's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Zach Nunn
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Rudy Salas to win the 2024 U.S. House election in California's district 22
“Rudy Salas currently has a 55% chance of beating Valadao in a rematch.”
David Valadao woncalled Rudy Salas
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.04 difficulty = −104 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-ca-22
election year:
2024
skill:
−104
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
a 55% chance
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
David Valadao
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in California's district 22
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rudy Salas
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
the Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. House election in California's district 27
“Our model suggests that you’d probably rather be the Democrats here, given the sheer partisanship of the district”
George Whitesides woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.04 difficulty = +104 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ca-27
election year:
2024
skill:
104
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
you’d probably rather be the Democrats here
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
George Whitesides
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in California's district 27
decided in the:
general
they said:
George Whitesides
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Tom Barrett to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 7
“Tom Barrett remains slightly favored, with a 55% chance of winning against Democrat Curtis Hertel”
Tom Barrett woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.04 difficulty = +104 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-mi-07
election year:
2024
skill:
104
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a 55% chance of winning
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Tom Barrett
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tom Barrett
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
“Democrats remain substantial (although not assured) favorites to hold their seats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona.”
Jacky S. Rosen woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
substantial (although not assured) favorites
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jacky S. Rosen
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jacky S. Rosen
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Sherrod Brown to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
“recent polls have given Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown a boost, placing him as the narrowest of favorites in the tossup column”
Bernard F. Moreno woncalled Sherrod Brown
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
the narrowest of favorites in the tossup column
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Sherrod Brown
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Mary Peltola to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Alaska's at-large district
“Our model gives Peltola a 58% chance of victory as she retains a fundraising advantage over her opponent.”
Nick Begich III woncalled Mary Peltola
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-ak-al
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a 58% chance of victory
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Nick Begich III
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Alaska's at-large district
decided in the:
ranked-choice
they said:
Mary Peltola
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Nebraska
“even as Trump is expected to win the state easily”
Donald Trump woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Ted Cruz to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
“a relatively even vote share with the top of the ticket makes it unlikely that he generates the ticket-splitting necessary to actually win... While this does not make a victory impossible, it does make it improbable”
Ted Cruz woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
a victory [for Allred] is improbable
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
“Democrats remain substantial (although not assured) favorites to hold their seats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona.”
Dave McCormick woncalled Robert P. Casey Jr.
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
substantial (although not assured) favorites
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Robert P. Casey Jr.
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Derek Tran to win the 2024 U.S. House election in California's district 45
“Democrat Derek Tran has just a 51% chance of beating Republican Michelle Steel.”
Derek Tran woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.04 difficulty = +104 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ca-45
election year:
2024
skill:
104
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
a 51% chance
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Derek Tran
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in California's district 45
decided in the:
general
they said:
Derek Tran
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Washington's district 3
“Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is narrowly favored to win a rematch against Republican Joe Kent.”
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-wa-03
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
narrowly favored to win
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Washington's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
“Democrats remain substantial (although not assured) favorites to hold their seats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona.”
Tammy Baldwin woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
substantial (although not assured) favorites
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tammy Baldwin
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tammy Baldwin
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Tim Sheehy (The GOP) to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
“Montana Senator Jon Tester continues to trail Republican candidate Tim Sheehy. The GOP has an 82% chance of flipping the seat in the latest model.”
Tim Sheehy woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.04 difficulty = +104 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
104
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
82% chance of flipping the seat
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Austin Therieault to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Maine's district 2
“moderate Democrat Jared Golden is an underdog against Republican Austin Therieault, who now has a 56% chance of winning”
Jared Forrest Golden woncalled Austin Theriault
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.04 difficulty = −104 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-me-02
election year:
2024
skill:
−104
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a 56% chance of winning
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Jared Forrest Golden
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Maine's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Austin Theriault
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
“Democrats remain substantial (although not assured) favorites to hold their seats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona.”
Elissa Slotkin woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
substantial (although not assured) favorites
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Elissa Slotkin
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Elissa Slotkin
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Deb Fischer to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
“While we still expect a solid Fischer win, an Osborn overperformance now looks quite likely.”
Deb Fischer woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.04 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
a solid Fischer win
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Deb Fischer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Deb Fischer
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

Control of Congress1 hit · 1 missShow ▸

“our latest forecast gives Republicans a 73% chance of winning a majority”
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.04 difficulty = +104 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
104
topic:
elections
in their words:
73% chance of winning a majority
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
“Our model gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning the chamber — down from 61% last week”
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.04 difficulty = −104 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2024
skill:
−104
topic:
elections
in their words:
a 56% chance of winning the chamber
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

Seat Counts1 hit · 1 close callShow ▸

“As of today, Democrats have the advantage in 211 seats, while Republicans are favored in 208. Sixteen seats are currently in the tossup column.”
215called 211
80Hit
80 − 90 naive = −10 × 1.04 difficulty = −10.4 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Democratic
seats after:
215
skill:
−10.4
topic:
elections
what happened:
215
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
80
baseline:
90
they said:
211
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
“As of today, Democrats have the advantage in 211 seats, while Republicans are favored in 208. Sixteen seats are currently in the tossup column.”
220called 208
40Close
40 − 90 naive = −50 × 1.04 difficulty = −52 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
220
skill:
−52
topic:
elections
what happened:
220
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
90
they said:
208
days before the vote when called:
30
difficulty:
1.04
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?

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