Lakshya Jain#14 of 21 election pundits · Sep 7, 2024

Split Ticket's Senate model update keeps Republicans favored to win an outright Senate majority, with Democrats given only a 25% chance of holding the chamber, and issues ratings for individual races: Fischer (NE) Likely Republican, Scott (FL) Leans Republican, Rosen (NV) Likely Democratic, Casey (PA) Leans Democratic, Kaine (VA) off the board, Montana Leans Republican, Texas lean-to-likely Republican, and Maryland Safe Democratic, with Gallego expected to beat Lake by more than six points.

Published in writing · Split TicketRead the original

13 of 17calls landed13 hits · 3 close calls · 1 miss · all settled

86.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 17 calls

69.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

14Races calledevery call on each below

#14Lakshya Jain’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What Lakshya Jain said

Republicans remain favored to win an outright majority.

Lakshya Jain, the lead quote

Where it was published: Split Ticket
The piece: Temperature Check: Republicans Remain Favored To Flip Senate
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 7, 2024
Election DayNov 5, 2024
GradedOct 9, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses
Race Winners	11	0	1
Race Margins	1	2	0
Seat Counts	0	1	0
Control of Congress	1	0	0
All	13	3	1

How each call scored

17 checkable claims — 12 race winners, 3 race margins, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 17 have settled, averaging 86.9 out of 100, against 69.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Race Winners11 hits · 1 missShow ▸

Jacky Rosen to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
“The race is currently Likely Democratic , and while the presidency is anyone's game right now, we expect Rosen to hold this seat”
Jacky S. Rosen woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jacky S. Rosen
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jacky S. Rosen
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Rick Scott to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Florida
“One new addition to the Leans Republican column is Florida... Republican incumbent Rick Scott remains a favorite in his reelection bid”
Rick Scott woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Rick Scott
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rick Scott
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Elissa Slotkin to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
“Democrats Tammy Baldwin (WI), Bob Casey (PA), and Elissa Slotkin (MI) all remain poised to win reelection”
Elissa Slotkin woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Elissa Slotkin
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Elissa Slotkin
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Trump to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
“especially as Trump is likely to comfortably win Texas”
Donald Trump woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Deb Fischer to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
“Why, then, is Deb Fischer's race now at Likely Republican ? ... the model now projects that Fischer has a 92% chance of winning.”
Deb Fischer woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Deb Fischer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Deb Fischer
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Virginia
“Tim Kaine is simply a very strong incumbent in a Biden +10 state that Harris is likely to comfortably win”
Kamala Harris woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-va
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Alsobrooks to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Maryland
“our model continues to hold the Maryland race at safe Democratic, despite Hogan's stronger-than-expected polling”
Angela Alsobrooks woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-md
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
safe Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Angela Alsobrooks
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Maryland
decided in the:
general
they said:
Angela Alsobrooks
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Bob Casey to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
“from Likely to Leans Democratic , as Democratic odds dip from 81% to 78%... We still expect Casey to win”
Dave McCormick woncalled Robert P. Casey Jr.
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Robert P. Casey Jr.
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Republican to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
“Texas, meanwhile, remains at the border of lean and likely Republican... while we expect Allred to outperform Kamala Harris, it likely won't be enough”
Ted Cruz woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
at the border of lean and likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Republican to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
“the model continues to consider the race Leans Republican. A Tester upset is by no means out of the picture (he has just a 26% chance of winning at the moment)”
Tim Sheehy woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.08 difficulty = +108 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
108
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Tammy Baldwin to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
“Democrats Tammy Baldwin (WI), Bob Casey (PA), and Elissa Slotkin (MI) all remain poised to win reelection”
Tammy Baldwin woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tammy Baldwin
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tammy Baldwin
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Tim Kaine to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Virginia
“No poll shows this race as being competitive, and our model expects him to win handily as well.”
Timothy M. Kaine woncertified result
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.08 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-va
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Timothy M. Kaine
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Timothy M. Kaine
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

Race Margins1 hit · 2 close callsShow ▸

Harris at 30 points in the 2024 U.S. presidential election in Maryland
“she also holds an edge in candidate fundraising and is running in a state Harris is likely to win by 30 points”
Kamala Harris won
85.4Hit
85.4 − 53.3 naive = 32.1 × 1.08 difficulty = +34.67 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-md
election year:
2024
skill:
34.67
topic:
elections
what happened:
28.54
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
85.4
baseline:
53.3
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Maryland
decided in the:
general
they said:
30
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
28.54
their party:
Democratic
the naive guess said:
33.21
Think this is wrong?
“While the model expects Fischer to eventually win her race by a double-digit margin, the polling average points to a much closer contest.”
Deb Fischer won
67.2Close
67.2 − 32.8 naive = 34.4 × 1.08 difficulty = +37.15 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-senate-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
37.15
topic:
elections
what happened:
6.72
in their words:
win her race by a double-digit margin
read as:
as written
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Deb Fischer
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Deb Fischer
accuracy:
67.2
baseline:
32.8
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
6.72
their party:
Republican
their range:
10 to 100
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
“at the moment, we expect her to lose by over 6 points, which would mark the worst Senatorial performance for an Arizona Republican in decades”
Ruben Gallego won
64Close
64 − 76 naive = −12 × 1.08 difficulty = −12.96 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-senate-az
election year:
2024
skill:
−12.96
topic:
elections
what happened:
−2.4
in their words:
lose by over 6 points
read as:
a loss
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ruben Gallego
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Kari Lake
accuracy:
64
baseline:
76
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
they won:
no
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
2.4
their party:
Republican
their range:
−100 to −6
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?

Seat Counts1 close callShow ▸

“At that time, Republicans were projected to take an outright majority in the chamber with 51 seats... Since then, the topline has remained the same”
53called 51
60Close
60 − 20 naive = 40 × 1.08 difficulty = +43.2 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
53
skill:
43.2
topic:
elections
what happened:
53
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
20
they said:
51
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
seats before:
49
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
49
Think this is wrong?

Control of Congress1 hitShow ▸

“although Democratic odds have ticked up a touch ( our latest model gives them a 25% chance of holding the Senate) , Republicans remain favored to win an outright majority”
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.08 difficulty = +108 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
108
topic:
elections
in their words:
Republicans remain favored to win an outright majority
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
59
difficulty:
1.08
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

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