Ayrton OstlyApr 3, 2026
Ostley has consistently mocked Utah tackle Caleb Lomu to the 49ers at No. 27, believes Cassius Howell's short arms drop them out of the first round, and sees Derek Moore and Gabe Akas as second-round edge rushers.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On 49ers (podcast)Hear the original
What Ayrton Ostly said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo I think that once he got that arm length at the combine, I felt like he dropped firmly out of the first round.
- Where it was said
- Locked On 49ers (podcast)
- The episode
- 49ERS SQUAD SHOW: CALEB LOMU Clear FAVORITE For 49ers First Round Pick?
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidApr 3
- GradedOct 1
- 1Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27“you've been you've had Lamu going to the 40 niners per since pretty early on... This has been, somebody that you have targeted in all of your mock drafts”
- 2Cashius Howell to be picked “dropped firmly out of the first round” (picks 1–32)“So I think that once he got that arm length at the combine, I felt like he dropped firmly out of the first round.”
- 3Gabe Akas to be picked “round two”“Another couple guys I could see going in round two... And a name that I've been seeing really shooting up boards lately is Gabe Akas out of Illinois.”
- 4Derek Moore to be picked “round two”“Another couple guys I could see going in round two. Derek Moore out of Michigan.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 271 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 28 | 95.76 | 50 | — | |
| Cashius Howell to be picked “dropped firmly out of the first round” (picks 1–32)2 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 41 | 67.71 | 50 | — | |
| Gabe Akas to be picked “round two”3 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Derek Moore to be picked “round two”4 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 4 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 2 waiting | 81.7 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive4 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 81.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Caleb Lomu · 2026 season · overall pick4 calls from 4 pundits between 19 overall pick and 28 overall pick. Ayrton Ostly said 27 overall pick. the room's median is 27 overall pick. what happened: 28 overall pick
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksCaleb LomuSan Francisco 49ers
Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27
What happenedWent 28mocked at 2795.76Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Caleb Lomu
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 28
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Mock Draft PicksCashius Howell
Cashius Howell to be picked “dropped firmly out of the first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 4167.71Close · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cashius Howell
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 41
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- dropped firmly out of the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Gabe Akas to be picked “round two”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Derek Moore to be picked “round two”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
81.7naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.