Joe ThomasSep 6, 2022

Thomas picked Josh Allen MVP, Jonathan Taylor OPOY, Myles Garrett DPOY, Dameon Pierce OROY, Aidan Hutchinson DROY, Derrick Henry Comeback Player and Nick Sirianni Coach of the Year.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

0 of 7calls landed7 misses · all settled

0Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7 of 7Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Joe Thomas said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

[Hutchinson] might start a little bit slow ... but by mid-season he's going to showing exactly why I had him as the No. 1 overall player in this last NFL draft.

Joe Thomas, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: The 33rd Team
The piece: 2022 NFL Awards Predictions: MVP, Rookies of the Year, and More - The 33rd Team
The original: The copy as archived Sep 7, 2022
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

SaidSep 5, 2022
GradedAug 5, 2026

1Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year“1. Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson (10 votes: ... Thomas ...)”
2Nick Sirianni to win Coach of the Year“T3. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni (2 votes: Long, Thomas)”
3Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player“1. Bills QB Josh Allen (7 votes: ... Joe Thomas ...)”
4Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year“2. Titans RB Derrick Henry (5 votes: Barber, Cassel, Gannon, Phillips, Thomas)”
5Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year“1. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (6 votes: ... Thomas ...)”
6Dameon Pierce to win Offensive Rookie of the Year“4. Texans RB Dameon Pierce (2 votes: Long, Thomas)”
7Myles Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year“Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett (1 vote: Thomas)”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Skill
Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year¹	Award Picks	Sauce Gardner won	0
Nick Sirianni to win Coach of the Year²	Coach Award Picks	Brian Daboll won	0
Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player³	Award Picks	Patrick Mahomes won	0
Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year⁴	Award Picks	Geno Smith won	0
Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year⁵	Award Picks	Justin Jefferson won	0
Dameon Pierce to win Offensive Rookie of the Year⁶	Award Picks	Garrett Wilson won	0
Myles Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year⁷	Award Picks	Nick Bosa won	0
7 calls · 7 misses · all settled

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

7 checkable claims — 6 award picks and 1 coach award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 7 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Award Picks Aidan Hutchinson Detroit Lions
Aidan Hutchinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedSauce Gardner woncalled Aidan Hutchinson
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Micah Parsons, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Aidan Hutchinson
season:
2022
who won:
Sauce Gardner
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
2Coach Award Picks Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Sirianni to win Coach of the Year
What happenedBrian Daboll woncalled Nick Sirianni
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
coach_of_the_year
coach:
Nick Sirianni
naive:
the naive pick was Mike Vrabel, who won it the year before
skill:
0
season:
2022
who won:
Brian Daboll
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Award Picks Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win Most Valuable Player
What happenedPatrick Mahomes woncalled Josh Allen
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Aaron Rodgers, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2022
who won:
Patrick Mahomes
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Award Picks Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year
What happenedGeno Smith woncalled Derrick Henry
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
comeback_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Joe Burrow, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Derrick Henry
season:
2022
who won:
Geno Smith
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
5Award Picks Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor to win Offensive Player of the Year
What happenedJustin Jefferson woncalled Jonathan Taylor
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Cooper Kupp, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Jonathan Taylor
season:
2022
who won:
Justin Jefferson
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
6Award Picks Dameon Pierce Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
What happenedGarrett Wilson woncalled Dameon Pierce
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
offensive_rookie_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Dameon Pierce
season:
2022
who won:
Garrett Wilson
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
7Award Picks Myles Garrett Cleveland Browns
Myles Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedNick Bosa woncalled Myles Garrett
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
award:
defensive_player_of_the_year
naive:
the naive pick was T.J. Watt, who won it the year before
skill:
0
player:
Myles Garrett
season:
2022
who won:
Nick Bosa
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 0