Henry Olsen· Nov 5, 2024

Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.

“I've got, Harris up in the popular vote by about a point and some tenths, but Trump up in the electoral college by two ninety seven to two forty one”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 2 race margins, 1 chamber control, 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

3 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 95 out of 100, against 85.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

297They said

312What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“Trump up in the electoral college by two ninety seven to two forty one... we'll know who the president is on Wednesday morning, and that president will be Donald Trump.”
Hit · 85Scored 85a naive guess scored 57+28 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
28
topic:
elections
what happened:
312
in their words:
two ninety seven to two forty one
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
100
what they counted:
electoral_votes
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
85
baseline:
57
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
297
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
half the electoral college
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
86
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
269
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 5, 2024
“and I think Republicans keep a narrow margin in the house”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
in their words:
keep a narrow margin
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Virginia 3 is the African American district that I was talking about. The Republicans are not going to win that seat”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-va-03
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Bobby Scott
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bobby Scott
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“I've got, Harris up in the popular vote by about a point and some tenths”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 5, 2024
“I think Republicans will have 54, 55 senators”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.