Saagar Enjeti· Nov 4, 2024
Saagar forecast a narrow Trump win with 271 electoral votes to Harris's 267, giving Harris Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina while Trump takes Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
“I've got at the top line, Donald Trump winning the election with two hundred and seventy one electoral votes”
said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 7 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 8 have settled, averaging 57.4 out of 100, against 19.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“I've got Pennsylvania going red.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-pa
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“I've got Wisconsin and Michigan going blue for Kamala.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-wi
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“then I've got Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada all going red”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-nv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“I've got Wisconsin and Michigan going blue for Kamala.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-mi
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race MarginsNov 4, 2024
“I've got at the top line, Donald Trump winning the election with two hundred and seventy one electoral votes, literally just one over what he needs to win two hundred and sixty seven there for Kamala Harris.”
Close · 59Scored 59a naive guess scored 57+2 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 2
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 312
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 100
- what they counted:
- electoral_votes
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 59
- baseline:
- 57
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- 271
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- half the electoral college
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 86
- their party:
- Republican
- the naive guess said:
- 269
- Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“I've got North Carolina glowing blue”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-nc
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“then I've got Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada all going red, which gives him exactly two hundred and seventy one electoral votes”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-ga
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“there has been enough of a Republican surge that I feel pretty confident calling Arizona for Donald Trump”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-az
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.