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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
33% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
351 / 1,058
graded
707 still pending
By season
176–200 of 1,058
Green Bay Packers to win the division
Green Bay Packers (+240) Prisco: "Young talent, a quarterback in Jordan Love who will be in the MVP mix and Micah Parsons when he returns. That's enough for me."
Dallas Cowboys to win the division
The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL and if their defense can take just a small step forward, they could be a huge threat to win not only the division
Chicago Bears to win the division
There are questions on defense, especially after losing Coby Bryant to injury, but it's hard to bet against Johnson in Year 2.
New Orleans Saints to win the division
New Orleans has some promising young players on both sides of the ball, and there is no overwhelming favorite in the division.
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
Everybody seems ready to hand this division back to the Rams, which is probably exactly how the Seahawks prefer it.
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
This division feels like it's going to come down to the Bengals or Ravens, so I flipped a coin. Baltimore wins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the division
I don't think any of these teams are very good, so I'm just going with the one I think is the least bad.
New Orleans Saints to win the division
I think he leads New Orleans on a worst-to-first run to steal the NFC South.
Houston Texans to win the division
The odds aren't the best for the Texans here, but that's because they're pretty clearly the best team in the division.
Chicago Bears to win the division
The Bears were the division's best team last year, and it appears that that is still the case.
Buffalo Bills to win the division
The Patriots had a fun one-year run at the top of the division, but the Bills will be out for blood this year.
Detroit Lions to win the division
The Minnesota Vikings are definitely an interesting flier at +450, but I'll take the Lions at +175.
Dallas Cowboys to win the division
Yep, I'm drinking the Cowboys Kool-Aid this year.
Detroit Lions to win the division
Detroit has the easiest schedule in the NFL entering 2026 ... that should help them stack up wins in what should be a wildly competitive NFC North.
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
The amount of optimism that I have in Cincinnati is beginning to alarm me. ... As it stands, they offer better value.
New Orleans Saints to win the division
With one of the easiest paths in the league, New Orleans can be one of the surprise teams of 2026.
Houston Texans to win the division
I think the Texans have the best defense in the AFC ... forget the division title, this team could be a surprise Super Bowl contender.
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
There's much more value in taking the reigning Super Bowl champion at +215 or the San Francisco 49ers at +305 and rooting for the downfall of this newly constructed super team.
Denver Broncos to win the division
I think this is the best roster in the division, so getting plus money feels good here.
Minnesota Vikings to win the division
If Kyler Murray can help Minnesota return to a functional offense, then it is easy to envision a scenario in which that team capitalizes on others within the division already dealing with injuries.
Buffalo Bills to win the division
Buffalo Bills (-136) ... Prisco: "They will give this team back to Josh Allen. The aggression will be back."
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division
Joe Burrow and the offense will roll up points. But it's the improved defense that will win the division.
Dallas Cowboys to win the division
If the defense takes even a small step forward this season, the odds are good that they will overtake Philadelphia in that division.
Detroit Lions to win the division
With a high-flying offense, I think the Lions have enough firepower to take the NFC North.
New England Patriots to win the division
Although Buffalo would be my pick to win the division, the gap between them and the Patriots ... is not so large that the value should be ignored.