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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3651–3675 of 4,387
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
For a couple of months now, it's been pretty clear that the Titans pick is going to be cam Ward, the quarterback from Miami... it would be a absolute shock if it's not cam Ward going to Tennessee
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “somewhere in the top ten” (picks 1–10)
My question is not does Ashion Genty end up going somewhere in the top ten? I believe you will.
Tyler Warren to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)
Cody's right, and Tyler Warren should be a top ten pick.
Carson Schwesinger to be picked “round one”
I'm gonna give you five names of players you haven't seen a whole lot in the mock drafts, but you should not be shocked if Roger Goodell introduces him in round one. Let's start off with Carson Swessinger, linebacker from UCLA.
Tyler Shough to be picked “a Day two pick”
Realistically, Tyler Shuck. Probably more than likely it's going to be a Day two pick.
Jared Wilson to be picked “round one”
Georgia center Jared Wilson is number three... centers tend to go. One of them usually sneaks up into round one. Keep an eye on Jared Wilson on Thursday Night.
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
No, it starts at one with Cam Wore, the best player in the draft who will be drafted number one overall.
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “doesn't get past six or seven”
I don't think he gets past six or seven, but I also don't think that people sitting at six or seven are necessarily the ones that are going to draft him.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “as high as two, if not three”
the biggest surprise that could be in store involves Shador Sanders. He could be drafted as high as two, if not three.
Tyler Shough to be picked “first round surprise” (picks 1–32)
I had him on my potential first surprise first round surprise list that I published on nfl.com yesterday. I think there's a real possibility that guy could get pushed up.
Carson Schwesinger to be picked “could go in the first”
Carton Schwesen Carson Schwesinger, who hasn't been in any mock drafts, could go in the first.
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
there's certainly gonna be one quarterback on because Cam Ward remains the presumptive number one overall pick
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
Like there's no way this dude does not get picked number one overall. I see him as in that tiny uniform right now, I can envision it.
Ashton Jeanty to be picked “ceiling is potentially five to Jacksonville. His floor might just be ten”
I think his ceiling is potentially five to Jacksonville. His floor might just be ten. He is a generational back.
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 4
I think the Patriots are gonna get Abdul Carter. The edge.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 3
Number three may surprise you. I do now think the Giants are gonna take Shador Sanders.
Kelvin Banks Jr. to be picked at number 11
number eleven, nine ers, I would go Calvin Banks.
Will Johnson to be picked at number 9
Number nine Saints Will Johnson.
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
Number one is Tennessee. You gotta get cam Warden. It's an easy one.
Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 6
I think the Raiders go get Ashton Gent, the running back... Ashton Jenny playmaker at six.
Travis Hunter to be picked at number 2
number two, Cleveland. I think they go and get Travis Hunter, the best overall athlete in the draft
Mason Graham to be picked at number 5
Jaguars get Mason Graham... I think he goes number five.
Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 15
And at fifteenth Atlanta Shamar Stewart edge rusher, Texas and m
Armand Membou to be picked at number 14
Number fourteen the Colts... Armand Memboo from Missouri who tore it up offensive lineman.
Tyler Warren to be picked at number 7
The Jets get Tyler Warren at number seven the tight end.
