Rich Eisen· Dec 8, 2025
Eisen pushed back on several takes: he doubts the Chiefs make the playoffs this year, agrees the Bills as a 5 seed can win a road playoff game, thinks New England wins the AFC East, expects Carolina to sweep Tampa Bay and win the NFC South, says Lamar Jackson is not a top-10 quarterback this year, sees the Ravens still able to win the AFC North at 8-9, and names Christian McCaffrey the Offensive Player of the Year front-runner.
“I wouldn't be shocked if they swept Tampa to to bring this home.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 2 division winners, 1 award pick, 1 game outcome pick and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersBaltimore RavensDec 8, 2025
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“So the Ravens still have a shot at the division, a shot at the playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksCarolina PanthersDec 8, 2025
Carolina Panthers to beat Tampa
“I wouldn't be shocked if they swept Tampa to to bring this home.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CAR
- score:
- 20-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CAR
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- Division WinnersNew England PatriotsDec 8, 2025
New England Patriots to win the division
“I think you're winning the AFC East. It would be a massive collapse that I don't think New England has has in front of them”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- won the division:
- yes
Lamar Jackson to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
“Even I don't even think you could sit here and say he's a top 10 quarterback this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+128 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 128
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- passing yards
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 6
- actual finish:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 5
- predicted finish:
- not a top 10 quarterback this year (NOT ranks 1–10)
- Award PicksChristian McCaffreyDec 8, 2025
Christian McCaffrey to win Offensive Player of the Year
“And might be your front runner for offensive player of the year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- offensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Saquon Barkley, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.28
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 5
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Cowherd unveiled his top 10 NFL teams entering next season, with Seattle first, the Rams second and the Chiefs tenth, and separately picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
- Cynthia FrelundDivision Winners · Houston TexansMiss · 0Freeland's model has the Chargers winning straight up in Dallas, the Texans winning big over the Raiders and going on to win the AFC South, the Lions beating the Steelers by six, the Saints beating the Jets, and the Packers beating the Bears; she also sees the AFC's Super Bowl representative being either Denver or Houston.
- Chris BrockmanDivision Winners · Chicago BearsHit · 100Brockman called the Broncos-Packers game the best of the day, said Denver looks poised to lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed and reach the AFC Championship Game, predicted the Bears win the NFC North and the Eagles win their division (though he thinks they lose to a five seed from the NFC West), and said Philip Rivers will be in the NFL in 2026.
- Nick ShookDivision Winners · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 0Shook picks the Rams to win the Super Bowl and to beat the Lions, agrees the Buccaneers still hold the edge in the NFC South, and drops Patrick Mahomes to 12th in his QB Index behind Brock Purdy.