Lakshya Jain· Oct 30, 2024

Walking through Split Ticket's model state by state, Jain said Trump narrowly takes North Carolina by about a point, while Harris holds Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, with Michigan her safest at roughly a point and a half to two points.

“Right now, we think Donald Trump wins it by about a point.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 race margins and 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 26 out of 100, against 27.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 30, 2024
“Democrats are probably gonna have the hardest time keeping Wisconsin. Now we think they keep it by about twenty twenty margins, but it's very close.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
keep it by about twenty twenty margins
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsOct 30, 2024
“And so right now, we think Donald Trump wins it by about a point, but it's very possible that that actually ends up wrong on election day”
Close · 78Scored 77.9a naive guess scored 81.4-3.53 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
-3.53
topic:
elections
what happened:
3.21
in their words:
about a point
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
77.9
baseline:
81.4
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
1
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
3.21
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
1.35
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 30, 2024
“with the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, we have Harris narrowly winning”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
narrowly winning
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsOct 30, 2024
“Michigan is leans democratic... And so we think she ends up winning the state by about a point and a half, two points or so.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.